Australian Dollar rises as soft US jobs, GDP beat lift AUD, PMIs ahead

• AUD/USD rebounds as soft ADP data weighs on Dollar.
• Australia GDP beats forecasts, though RBA remains inflation-focused.
• Fed hike bets stay elevated amid Iran-driven energy risks.

The Australian Dollar advanced on Wednesday versus the US Dollar after economic data in the US revealed the labour market weakened slightly, while the Greenback dipped on intervention speculation in the FX markets. Aside from this, the market’s tone seems positive with Wall Street finishing the session in the green

AUD/USD advances as weaker US hiring and firm Australia growth pressure US Dollar

The AUD/USD trades at 0.7169 after hitting a daily low of 0.7121, up 0.35%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged down 0.08% to 99.57.

Data from the US revealed that private hiring slowed, with the ADP National Employment Change in August dipping from 46K to 38K, below forecasts of 47K.

Aside from US data, geopolitics continued to grab the headlines, as US President Donald Trump warned that “Renewed campaign against Iran won’t continue for too long,” implying that further attacks are on the table.

This puts upward pressure on energy prices and on global bond yields. Hence, money markets continued to price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September 16 meeting, with odds at 67.50%, according to Prime Terminal.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remain split on whether policy is restrictive, as New York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation data has been “slowly” improving but recognized that policy is appropriate to tame high prices. Eyes will turn to Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, a move that could align with the “hawkish” tilt shown by Fed Chair Warsh last week.

In Australia, GDP figures for Q2 2026 rose by 0.4% QoQ and 2.1% YoY, both exceeding forecasts, though the YoY figure was down from 2.5%. The data won’t move the needle as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is squarely focused on tackling inflation.

Ahead, the Aussie economic docket will feature S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs, alongside with Trade Balance data.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7169, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the simple moving average cluster around 0.7026 and an ascending trend-line support zone near 0.7002–0.6897. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 62 leans into positive territory, suggesting buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades well above the previously broken downward trend-line area, which now underpins the advance.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier around 0.7198, with the next bullish objective aligned with the projected ascending trend structure near 0.7339. On the downside, initial support is seen at the simple moving average region around 0.7026, followed by trend-line cushions near 0.7002 and 0.6897; a break below these levels would expose the deeper structural floor implied by the prior resistance line down toward 0.6389.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.).