EUR/USD rises toward 1.1650 despite increased risk aversion
- EUR/USD advances despite heightened safe-haven flows linked to the US–Greenland uncertainty.
- President Trump says tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries opposing his Greenland proposal.
- The US Dollar may regain ground as strong labor data delays Fed rate-cut expectations until June.
EUR/USD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.1630 during the Asian hours on Monday. The upside in the risk-sensitive pair may remain capped amid rising safe-haven demand, driven by escalating uncertainty surrounding the US–Greenland issue.
According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he would impose tariffs on eight European countries opposing his proposal to acquire Greenland. Trump stated that a 10% tariff would be levied on goods from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland, as well as Britain and Norway, effective February 1, until the US is permitted to purchase Greenland.
Meanwhile, European Union ambassadors reached a broad agreement on Sunday to step up efforts to dissuade Trump from implementing the tariffs, while also preparing retaliatory measures should the duties proceed.
The US Dollar (USD) could regain ground against its major peers as stronger US labor market data have pushed back expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts until June. Fed officials have signaled little urgency to ease policy further until there is clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts revised their 2026 outlook, now forecasting one rate cut in June followed by another in September, compared with their previous expectation of cuts in January and April.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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