Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD surges to all-time high above $4,650 amid Greenland tariff threats
- Gold price climbs to an all-time high around $4,675 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump hits eight European countries with tariffs, raising fears of a renewed trade war.
- Strong US economic data have lowered bets for a near-term Fed rate cut.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to a fresh record high near $4,675 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal gains momentum after US President Donald Trump said he would slap tariffs on eight European nations that have opposed his plan to take Greenland.
Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from countries including Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, along with the United Kingdom (UK) and Norway, starting from February 1, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. The move sparked fears of retaliation from Europe, supporting traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold.
European Union (EU) ambassadors reached a broad agreement on Sunday to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing levies on European allies, while also preparing retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead.
On the other hand, a slew of US economic data, including improving US labor market data, have lowered the implied probabilities of imminent US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Fed funds futures have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut to June and September from January and April.
The view that the US central bank can keep interest rates higher for longer generally underpins the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the non-interest-bearing assets like Gold.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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