NZD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.5800; RBNZ-Fed divergence limits losses
- NZD/USD trades with a negative bias amid China’s economic woes and the risk-off impulse.
- Fed rate cut bets cap the post-NFP USD recovery and support the pair amid hawkish RBNZ.
- Traders now look to Fed speak for some impetus ahead of the US CPI report on Thursday.
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 0.5760-0.5755 region, or an over one-week low, and ticks lower during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5780-0.5775 area, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for bearish traders.
Disappointing Chinese macro data released on Monday revived concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy. This, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the perceived riskier Kiwi and acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish outlook on the future policy path should help limit deeper losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
RBNZ Governor Ann Breman emphasised earlier this week that if economic conditions unfold as expected, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for an extended period. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to bets for two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which caps the US Dollar's (USD) post-US NFP bounce from the lowest level since early October and lends support to the NZD/USD pair.
Furthermore, expectations for a dovish replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Market participants now look forward to speeches from influential FOMC members, which, along with the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, would shape expectations about the Fed's policy path. This will play a key role in driving the USD demand in the near-term and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
Nevertheless, the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the NZD/USD pair’s recent corrective pullback from the 0.5830 region, or a multi-month high, touched last Thursday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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