NZD/USD remains subdued near 0.5700 due to potential for renewed US-China tensions
- NZD/USD faces challenges as President Trump plans to prevent China from obtaining Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology.
- New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted Building Permits increased 7.2% MoM in September, following a previous increase of 6.1%.
- The US Dollar gains ground amid weakening Fed rate cut bets for December.
NZD/USD continues its losses for the fourth successive session, trading around 0.5720 during the European hours on Monday. The pair struggles as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could face challenges after US President Donald Trump said he plans to block China from accessing Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, according to CBS News. His remarks could reignite US-China trade tensions, which had eased after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday during the APEC Summit in South Korea.
The seasonally adjusted Building Permits in New Zealand rose 7.2% month-on-month (MoM) in September, picking up from a 6.1% increase in August and marking the third consecutive monthly gain. Traders await labor market data for the third quarter due later this week.
Additionally, the NZD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from dampening expectations for a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following the central bank’s decision to lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate for the second time this year to a range of 3.75%-4.0%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December is far from certain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a cut in December, down from 93% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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