AUD/USD: Bias to buy dips – OCBC

Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to consolidate near recent lows. Pair was last at 0.6491 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bearish momentum on daily chart intact

"Softer 2Q CPI, PPI and decline in job advertisements paved the way for RBA to cut cash rate at the next meeting (12 Aug). For the year, cash rate futures point to about 65bps cut. Markets expecting further RBA cuts should weigh on AUD in the interim. Additionally, the month of Aug is seasonally bearish for AUD – average 0.84% decline over the last 10 months of August and AUD fell in 8 out of the last 10 months of Augusts."

"Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Bias to buy dips. Support at 0.6420/30 levels (100 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2024 high to 2025 low), 0.6380 (200 DMA) and 0.6310 (38.2% fibo). Resistance at 0.6510/20 levels (21, 50 DMAs), 0.66 levels."