British Pound: Capped by layered resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer against the US Dollar (USD) after encountering resistance near 1.3400, with limited fresh data and Bank of England (BoE) news. The RSI recovery suggests improving momentum, but multiple resistance levels between 1.3420 and 1.3520 constrain upside. They look for GBP/USD to trade in a 1.3350–1.3450 range in the near term.

Momentum improves but upside capped

"The pound is soft and also entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD after finding some near-term resistance around 1.3400."

"Fundamental releases have been limited and developments out of the BoE have been limited to media reports of a proposed easing in bank capital rules. Political developments have been limited with markets waiting for fresh news on the looming leadership transition from PM Starmer to the ‘leader-in-waiting’ Burnham."

"In terms of fiscal risks, the UK’s OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has underscored the challenges facing the UK and specifically the cost (£100bn) of stabilizing the national debt around current levels (95% of GDP)."

"Neutral/bullish—the RSI’s recovery has extended through the neutral threshold at 50 and momentum appears to be pushing further into bullish territory. The 50 and 200 day MA’s (both around 1.3400) had been flagged as offering the potential for near-term resistance and appear to be doing so."

"The daily chart offers dense resistance at several levels (1.3420, 1.3450. 1.3500, 1.3520) ahead of 1.3600. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)