RBA set to keep interest rate steady after three consecutive hikes
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the interest rate steady at 4.35% in June.
- RBA Governor Bullock’s words to be dissected for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
- The Australian Dollar is primed for intense volatility on the RBA policy announcement.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% when it announces its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, marking a pause after three consecutive rate hikes delivered earlier this year.
The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 05:30 GMT.
The RBA policy announcement and Bullock’s presser could trigger a big reaction in the Australian Dollar (AUD), as markets eagerly await signals on the bank’s path forward on interest rates.
RBA pauses, end of the tightening cycle?
While inflation remains stubbornly elevated and continues to pressure households, a growing number of signals suggest the Australian economy may be losing momentum. Higher borrowing costs have started to weigh on consumer demand and early signs of labour market cooling are emerging.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the first three months of the year, compared with a forecast of 0.5% and decelerating from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Annual growth steadied at 2.5% in the same period, below the 2.7% expected.
Meanwhile, the country’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April, the highest since September. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0.4% in April from 1.1% in March, while the annual pace also declined to 4.2% from 4.6%.
The central bank, therefore, finds itself balancing inflation that remains above target and an economy that appears to be slowing down.
“Markets now imply just a 22% probability of an August RBA hike, down from 80% a month ago, and just 11 bps of tightening this year as higher interest rates have started to slow economic activity,” per Reuters.
The shift in sentiment accelerated after National Australia Bank (NAB) ditched its peers by suggesting the RBA's next move could eventually be a rate cut rather than another hike.
Three of the four major banks, NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026.
For now, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious tone, acknowledging persistent inflation pressures while emphasizing increased uncertainty surrounding growth, employment and household spending.
The main focus will be on whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is enough to calm the central bank’s inflation concerns and to signal a pause in the current tightening cycle.
"It'll be about the little clues as to whether the cycle is over or it's still alive - that's going to be really important for both the Aussie and the kiwi markets," said Imre Speizer, a strategist at Westpac.
How will the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision impact AUD/USD?
The AUD has rebounded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) in the countdown to the RBA event risk.
The key market takeaway will therefore be any change in the RBA's forward guidance. A statement retaining a tightening bias could revive expectations for an August rate increase and support the Aussie Dollar.
Conversely, any indication that the central bank is becoming more concerned about growth risks could reinforce market pricing for a prolonged pause and weigh down on the AUD.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, highlights key technical levels for trading AUD/USD following the policy announcement.
“The pair is challenging the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the road to recovery. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced off the oversold territory, but remains in the bearish zone, suggesting that sellers are likely to retain control.”
“On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near 0.7084, followed by the 21-day SMA around 0.7116 and the 50-day SMA close to 0.7143, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-day SMA at roughly 0.6844 offers the next major support, with a sustained break below that long-term average likely opening the door to a deeper retracement,” Dhwani adds.
Economic Indicator
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.35%
Previous: 4.35%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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