China: Supportive policy but slower growth – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas economists note Chinese GDP growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, after 5% in 2025, and expects a moderate slowdown in 2026. They highlight a K-shaped pattern with strong exports but weak domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress. Authorities are seen maintaining modest fiscal and monetary support as deflationary pressures ease in 2026.
K-shaped growth with modest policy support
"Economic growth accelerated to +5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, vs. +4.5% in Q4 2025."
"It stood at 5% in 2025 as a whole and it is expected to slow moderately in 2026."
"Growth remains characterized by a K-shaped trajectory."
"The authorities will maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, but their measures will continue to be modest, even in a less supportive global environment."
"Deflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2026, notably thanks to higher global energy prices and anti-involution measures implemented by the authorities."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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