Australia FX Today: Australian Dollar weaker ahead of September PMIs

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading slightly lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the AUD/USD pair at 0.6595. But with the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for September due on Monday at 23:00 GMT, caution could be the order of the day for traders.

These releases will shed new light on Australia's economic dynamics at a crucial time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to have reached a turning point in its monetary policy.

Strong PMIs in August: A basis for AUD support

The latest PMI figures released by S&P Global highlighted a significant acceleration in business activity in August, with the Composite PMI climbing to 55.5, its highest level since April 2022, confirming a stable growth dynamic for over 11 months.

At that time, the Manufacturing PMI reached 53.0, marking its strongest rise in three years. This figure testifies to an improvement in order books, a modest return to external demand, but above all to renewed confidence among manufacturers.

As S&P Global pointed out, "manufacturing activity has returned to a pace of expansion not seen since September 2022", thanks in particular to new orders from the USA, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

In services, the picture is even more encouraging. The index jumped to 55.8, buoyed by the strongest rise in exports since June 2022, as well as an upturn in employment not seen since April.

S&P Global points out that service companies benefited from robust demand and increased confidence, prompting them to step up their promotional efforts and broaden their customer base.

A continuation or improvement of these levels in September would reinforce the perception of a robust Australian economy, further supporting the Australian Dollar against its peers.

Conversely, a bearish surprise, particularly on services or exports, could reopen the debate on a prolonged pause in the economic recovery.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD: Bearish reversal signal?

AUD/USD 4-hour chart. Source: FXStreet.

After topping out at 0.6707 on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, AUD/USD has entered a bearish correction phase.

On Friday, bearish pressure appears to be strengthening, as the Aussie pair breaks below a bullish support line near 0.6600 and below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently at 0.6593.

A weekly close below these levels could give a bearish signal, which could cause the pair to fall further in the short term.

In this scenario, AUD/USD could initially retreat towards 0.6580 and 0.6560.

On the upside, the Aussie needs to climb back above the resistance line around 0.6600 before considering a continuation towards the recent peak at 0.6707.