EUR/USD climbs as US Dollar weakens on trade tensions

출처 Fxstreet
  • Euro edges higher amid Dollar pressure after White House pushes tariffs on Chinese ships, fueling global trade risks.
  • Trump reportedly furious with Fed Chair Powell; adviser says President reviewing legality of dismissal.
  • ECB’s Muller says lower energy prices and tariffs justify rate cut, though warns fragmentation may fuel inflation ahead.

The Euro advances against the US Dollar in muted trading, as financial markets are closed on Good Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, up 0.21%, lacking the strength to break the elusive 1.14 mark.

EUR/USD up 0.21% in holiday-thinned trading as markets digest US-China shipping levies and renewed Fed independence concerns

The financial markets' narrative remains focused on the United States' (US) controversial trade policies, which drove prices to dump the Greenback in favor of other G8 FX peers, like the shared currency.

Still, the White House is moving forward with applying levies on Chinese ships docking at US ports, which would threaten to shake up global shipping routes and escalate the trade war between China and the US.

On Thursday, breaking news revealed that Trump was angered at Fed Chair Jerome Powell and considered ousting him. Although market participants did not react to the headline, recently, White House Senior Adviser Hasset insisted that “Trump is studying whether firing Fed's Powell is an option.”

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of other six currencies, falls -0.09% down at 99.31.

With the news flow light, ECB’s Madis Muller revealed that the drop in energy prices and tariffs supported the rate cut. He added that police do not remain a constraint and that key indicators are moving in the right direction. He also pointed out that a more fragmented economy could push prices up.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD trades near the current week’s peak near 1.1400, with price action showing the Euro is poised to extend its gains past that area, opening the door for further upside. Key resistance levels like at April 11 high at 1.1473, followed by 1.1498 the February 2022 peak ahead of the 1.1500 figure.

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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[국제금] "금리 내려도 겁난다"... 연준 '매파적 인하' 경계감에 4,200불 하회연준의 12월 '매파적 인하' 우려로 금 가격(XAU/USD)이 4,200달러를 하회한 가운데, 시장은 ADP·JOLTS 고용 지표와 트럼프-젤렌스키 간 지정학적 리스크에 주목하며 관망세를 유지하고 있다.
저자  Mitrade팀
12 월 09 일 화요일
연준의 12월 '매파적 인하' 우려로 금 가격(XAU/USD)이 4,200달러를 하회한 가운데, 시장은 ADP·JOLTS 고용 지표와 트럼프-젤렌스키 간 지정학적 리스크에 주목하며 관망세를 유지하고 있다.
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[국제금] "파월 입만 본다"... FOMC 앞두고 숨죽인 금, 박스권 갇혀FOMC를 앞두고 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 박스권 장세(4,163~4,250달러)를 이어가고 있다. 연준의 금리 인하 기대와 지정학적 리스크가 하단을 지지하는 가운데, 향후 방향성의 기술적 분기점을 분석한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
12 월 09 일 화요일
FOMC를 앞두고 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 박스권 장세(4,163~4,250달러)를 이어가고 있다. 연준의 금리 인하 기대와 지정학적 리스크가 하단을 지지하는 가운데, 향후 방향성의 기술적 분기점을 분석한다.
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[코인 시황] 도지코인(DOGE), 연준 훈풍에 '꿈틀'... 개미·고래 "쌍끌이 매수" 나섰다연준 금리 인하 기대에 도지코인(DOGE) 선물 미결제약정이 14.9억 달러로 급증했다. 고래 매수세 유입 속 0.1480달러 저항선 돌파 여부를 기술적으로 분석한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
어제 06: 15
연준 금리 인하 기대에 도지코인(DOGE) 선물 미결제약정이 14.9억 달러로 급증했다. 고래 매수세 유입 속 0.1480달러 저항선 돌파 여부를 기술적으로 분석한다.
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[국제금] "결과는 보고 움직이자"... FOMC 대기에 4,200불 '눈치 보기'FOMC 금리 결정을 앞두고 국제 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 4,200달러 선 위에서 관망세를 이어가고 있다. 4,250달러 돌파 여부와 노동시장 지표(JOLTS) 분석을 통해 향후 전망을 진단한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
어제 06: 20
FOMC 금리 결정을 앞두고 국제 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 4,200달러 선 위에서 관망세를 이어가고 있다. 4,250달러 돌파 여부와 노동시장 지표(JOLTS) 분석을 통해 향후 전망을 진단한다.
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[코인 시황] 에이다(ADA), "가격은 털썩, 네트워크는 펄펄"... 뚜렷해진 괴리 현상카르다노(ADA)가 파생상품 시장의 숏 베팅 우위 속에 5% 하락했다. 그러나 온체인 거래량은 9개월래 최고치를 기록하며 펀더멘털 괴리 현상이 발생하고 있다. 기술적 전망 분석.
저자  Mitrade팀
9 시간 전
카르다노(ADA)가 파생상품 시장의 숏 베팅 우위 속에 5% 하락했다. 그러나 온체인 거래량은 9개월래 최고치를 기록하며 펀더멘털 괴리 현상이 발생하고 있다. 기술적 전망 분석.
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