Forecasting the upcoming week: Markets shift focus to PMIs and central bank events
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbs above the 99.30 region, reaching fresh multi-week highs on Friday as stronger-than-expected United States (US) economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
April Retail Sales rose 0.5%, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite elevated borrowing costs, while hotter Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports continued fueling inflation concerns.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.42% | 0.66% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 1.05% | 1.26% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | -0.42% | 0.24% | -0.13% | -0.16% | 0.62% | 0.87% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.66% | -0.24% | -0.36% | -0.39% | 0.41% | 0.62% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.13% | 0.36% | -0.01% | 0.75% | 0.98% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.16% | 0.39% | 0.01% | 0.75% | 0.96% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -1.05% | -0.62% | -0.41% | -0.75% | -0.75% | 0.24% | -0.63% | |
| NZD | -1.26% | -0.87% | -0.62% | -0.98% | -0.96% | -0.24% | -0.85% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | 0.00% | 0.24% | -0.12% | -0.14% | 0.63% | 0.85% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD falls toward the 1.1620 area amid broad USD strength and higher US yields, pressuring the shared currency. Investors also remain cautious as rising energy costs linked to Middle East tensions weigh on the European growth outlook.
GBP/USD drops near the 1.3320 region, hitting fresh monthly lows as Sterling remains pressured by the stronger Greenback and persistent UK fiscal and political concerns about Prime Minister Kier Starmer's longevity in office.
USD/JPY advances toward the 158.80 zone, a two-week high, supported by widening US-Japan yield differentials following hotter-than-expected US inflation data. The Japanese Yen (JPY) also loses part of its safe-haven appeal as markets react positively to constructive headlines from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
AUD/USD weakens toward the 0.7150 region as persistent USD demand offsets support from improving market sentiment surrounding the Trump-Xi summit.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains elevated above the $101.30 per barrel mark, as stalled negotiations involving Iran continue to fuel fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold trades under pressure near the $4,530 region as rising Treasury yields and persistent USD strength reduce demand for the non-yielding precious metal, though ongoing geopolitical tensions limit deeper losses.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, May 18:
- G7 Meeting
- ECB’s Elderson speech
- BoE’s Greene speech
- BoE’s Mann speech
Tuesday, May 19:
- G7 Meeting
- Fed’s Waller speech
- BoE’s Breeden speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- Fed’s Paulson speech
Wednesday, May 20:
- Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
- Fed’s Barr speech
- FOMC Minutes
- ECB’s Sleijpen speech
Thursday, May 21:
- German Buba Monthly Report
- BoE’s Taylor speech
- ECB’s Elderson speech
Friday, May 22:
- ECB’s Lane speech
- EcoFin Meeting
- Eurogroup Meeting
- Fed’s Waller speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Sunday, May 17:
- NZ Business NZ PSI
Monday, May 18:
- China Industrial Production, Retail Sales
- NZ Q1 Producer Price Index Output
- Japan Q1 Gross Domestic Product
Tuesday, May 19:
- Australia May Westpac Consumer Confidence, RBA Meeting Minutes
- UK March Labor Market Data (Average Earnings, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate)
- UK April Claimant Count Data
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- Canada April Inflation Data (BoC Core CPI, CPI)
- US April Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, May 20:
- China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
- UK April Inflation Data (CPI, Core CPI, PPI, RPI)
- Germany April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- NZ April Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance)
- Australia May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- Japan April Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance)
Thursday, May 21:
- Australia May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- Australia April Labor Market Data (Employment Change, Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate)
- Germany April Producer Price Index
- Switzerland Q1 Industrial Production
- France May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- Germany May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- EU May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- UK May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- US April Housing Data (Building Permits, Housing Starts)
- US Initial Jobless Claims, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
- US May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- EU May Preliminary Consumer Confidence
- NZ Q1 Retail Sales
- UK May GfK Consumer Confidence
- Japan April CPI
Friday, May 22:
- Germany Q1 Gross Domestic Product
- UK April Retail Sales
- Germany May IFO Survey (Business Climate, Current Assessment, Expectations)
- Canada March Retail Sales
- US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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