Oil: Supply-chain stress scenarios – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists outline how a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect Oil and refined products. Using a partial model of the global oil supply chain, they argue Europe would mainly see price adjustments in a three‑month closure, but a year‑long disruption would deplete buffers and force significant demand cuts, especially in jet fuel, naphtha and fuel oil.

Hormuz disruption and product bottlenecks

"Using a partial model of the global oil supply chain, we assess risks of bottlenecks in refined products. The model shows required supply‑demand adjustments, not actual inventory forecasts."

"In the event of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasting up to three months (from March), physical shortages of oil products in Europe are unlikely; adjustments are expected to occur primarily through higher prices."

"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for around one year, buffers are also depleted in Europe, making substantial demand reduction unavoidable, particularly for jet fuel, naphtha and fuel oil."

"Impacts are uneven, hitting aviation, logistics and air‑freight‑dependent industries most"

"Parts of Asia and Oceania face higher shortage risks due to low stocks, limited refining and Middle East dependence."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)