Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP edge lower despite renewed ETF inflows

• Bitcoin corrects below $64,000 despite returning inflows into spot ETFs.
• Ethereum upside remains capped under the 100-day EMA as the down leg extends below $1,900.
• XRP trades broadly sideways in the $1.05-$1.10 range amid over $7 million in ETF inflows so far this week.

The cryptocurrency market broadly corrects on Friday, as investors assess macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, which continue to escalate in the Middle East. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $64,000, down from the weekly high of $65,745. Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are trading under increasing selling pressure below $1,900 and $1.10, respectively.

Risk appetite has continued to wane this week, with the Fear & Greed Index slipping to 25, firmly in Fear territory, down from 28 just a day earlier.

ETF inflows extend despite inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday. Three of the central bank officials dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike, which raised inflation concerns, “driving a sharp repricing across rates and equities before strong earnings helped stabilize sentiment,” as highlighted by analysts at Crypto Finance.

Institutional investors appear to be gazing beyond the macro uncertainty and Middle East war headlines. Inflows into spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) increased to $233 million on Thursday, from $32 million the previous day. According to SoSoValue data, BTC ETFs’ cumulative inflows are nearly $52 billion, underscoring the long-term positive investor outlook.

Ethereum spot ETF inflows have been largely nuanced this week, with roughly $13 million on Thursday. Outflows totaled $19 million on Wednesday, following $9 million and $15 million in inflows on Monday and Tuesday.

As for XRP spot ETFs, inflows surged to nearly $6 million on Thursday, up from a mere $585,000 the day before. So far this week, cumulative inflows stand slightly above $7 million through Thursday. The surge underpins growing risk-on sentiment for XRP investment products, despite the overall crypto market’s dull outlook.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin falters amid a dominant bearish outlook

Bitcoin trades around $63,969, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term 50-day EMA at $64,904 is the nearest cap overhead, reinforcing a corrective bias while price stays under this cluster of longer-term averages.

Momentum conditions are soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the midline on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram in negative territory, which together suggest downside pressure is still present even if not yet impulsive.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA around $64,904, followed by the 100-day EMA at $67,460, while the 200-day EMA at approximately $72,977 forms a more strategic barrier that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader downside risk. On the downside, the absence of nearby indicator-based supports on this timeframe implies that any further slide could seek validation from prior price lows and round-number areas including $62,000 and $60,000, respectively.

"The inability of bears to gain meaningful traction is becoming almost as notable as the absence of a fresh bullish catalyst," analysts at Crypto Finance added.

Altcoin technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP face renewed headwinds

Ethereum trades near $1,890, extending its decline from the weekly high of $1,981. Meanwhile, the pair remains capped beneath the 100-day EMA around $1,932 and well below the 200-day EMA at $2,173, keeping the broader tone bearish despite holding above the 50-day EMA around $1,850.

The spot price is hovering around a descending resistance trendline pivot, suggesting that sellers are still defending the recovery, while the RSI near 54 hints at only modest positive momentum and the MACD slipping into negative territory suggests rallies could continue to struggle against overhead supply.

On the topside, immediate resistance lies at the nearby descending trendline pivot around $1,892, with a break higher exposing the 100-day EMA at $1,932, followed by a stronger barrier at the 200-day EMA near $2,173. On the downside, the 50-day EMA around 1,850 offers initial support. A daily close below this moving average would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper retracement toward lower levels like $1,800 and $1,600, respectively.

XRP, on the other hand, trades at $1.07, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $1.13, $1.21, and $1.41, respectively. Momentum indicators align with this capped structure, with the RSI hovering near 44 and the MACD line remaining slightly negative, which together suggest that any rebounds are likely to face selling pressure while the pair trades under these clustered EMAs.

Initial resistance appears around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement above $1.12, closely followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.13, forming a nearby supply band. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $1.21 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.22 mark the next hurdles before the broader Fibonacci barriers at $1.28 and $1.34. The 200-day EMA at $1.41 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $ 1.42 reinforce a higher-term cap.

On the downside, the main structural support is seen at the 100.0% Fibonacci level near $1.01, where buyers may look to defend the prior swing low if the current decline extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)