Gold rallies to  $3,400 as Middle East tensions and weak US data spur dovish bets on Fed

출처 Fxstreet
  • XAU/USD trades at $3,386, extending rally on Fed rate cut speculation.
  • US jobless claims top 240K for second week; inflation cools.
  • Israel reportedly weighing military strike on Iran adds to geopolitical risk.

Gold price rallies for the second straight day, shy of testing the $3,400 figure following the release of softer inflation and jobs data in the United States (US) as geopolitical tensions grow in the Middle East. The XAU/USD trades at $3,386 at the time of writing.

Market mood remains upbeat, following back-to-back positive inflation reports in the US, which are pressuring the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates as the economy has yet to show the full impact of tariffs on prices. The labor market continues to exhibit some weakness, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment claims surpassed 240,000 for the second consecutive week.

Aside from this, ABC reported that Israel is considering taking military action against Iran in the coming days. In the meantime, US Senior Advisor Steve Witkoff will meet Iranian officials this weekend in Oman.

Regarding trade policy, the US and China agreed to a framework on Wednesday, revealed the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The agreement is pending approval from President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Ahead of this week, the US economic docket will feature the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for June. Next week, traders' focus shifts to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting on June 17-18.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price surges as the Greenback and US yields tumble

  • The Greenback plunges to three-year lows, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, fell 0.60% to 97.99 after hitting a multi-year low of 97.60.
  • US Treasury yields are falling as the US 10-year Treasury yield has dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.367%. US real yields followed suit, losing five basis points to 2.097%, boosting Bullion’s advance.
  • US Producer Price Index (PPI) in May rose 2.6% YoY, a tenth above April’s reading of 2.5%. Core PPI – which excludes volatile items like food and energy – dipped from 3.1% to 3% YoY.
  • Every month, the PPI was mainly muted, rising 0.1% MoM below the 0.2% expected by the consensus. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.1%, down from 0.3%.
  • Geopolitical tensions remain high as acknowledged by US President Trump, who said that Israel could strike Iran in the coming days. Sources cited by The Washington Post noted that US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about Israel striking Iran without Washington's approval.
  • Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 51 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Source: Prime Market Terminal

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price consolidates near  $3,400

Gold price appears poised to test higher levels in the near term as price action remains constructive. The yellow metal has printed a successive series of higher highs and higher lows, trading near the $3,400 figure, which, once cleared, could open the door for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and has cleared the latest peak, indicating that buyers are gathering momentum. Therefore, if XAU/USD extends its gains past $3,400, it could test key resistance levels. Up next lies the $3,450 mark, followed by the record high of $3,500.

Conversely, if Gold falls below $3,300, look for downward pressure pushing XAU/USD towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,275, ahead of the April 3 high-turned-support at $3,167.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
은 가격 전망: 35.40달러 지지선 위에서는 매수 우위 지속은 가격(XAG/USD)은 목요일 아시아 거래 시간대에 36.55~36.60달러 부근에서 매도 압력을 받으며 전일 강세 흐름 중 일부를 반납했다. 이는 주간 상단 저항선 부근까지의 상승분을 일부 되돌리는 흐름으로 해석된다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 03 일 목요일
은 가격(XAG/USD)은 목요일 아시아 거래 시간대에 36.55~36.60달러 부근에서 매도 압력을 받으며 전일 강세 흐름 중 일부를 반납했다. 이는 주간 상단 저항선 부근까지의 상승분을 일부 되돌리는 흐름으로 해석된다.
placeholder
비트코인·이더리움·리플 가격 전망 ‑ BTC·XRP 사상 최고치 근접, ETH는 4,000달러 눈앞비트코인(BTC)과 리플(XRP)이 각자 사상 최고치에 바짝 다가선 가운데, 이더리움(ETH)은 핵심 심리적 저항선인 4,000달러를 향해 꾸준히 상승 중이다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 23 일 수요일
비트코인(BTC)과 리플(XRP)이 각자 사상 최고치에 바짝 다가선 가운데, 이더리움(ETH)은 핵심 심리적 저항선인 4,000달러를 향해 꾸준히 상승 중이다.
placeholder
종합 1-삼성전자 주가는 테슬라 거래로 랠리 후 1 % 하락애널리스트들은 이 거래가 삼성의 수익성이 낮은 계약 사업을 강화할 수 있지만, 삼성은 추가적인 대형 고객을 확보하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있다고 말했습니다. 일론 머스크 테슬라 최고경영자는 일요일 늦게 텍사스 테일러에 위치한 삼성의 새로운 칩 공장에서 자동차 회사의 차세대 AI6 칩을 생산할 것이라고 말했지만 생산시기에 대해서는 자세히 설명하지 않았습니다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 29 일 화요일
애널리스트들은 이 거래가 삼성의 수익성이 낮은 계약 사업을 강화할 수 있지만, 삼성은 추가적인 대형 고객을 확보하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있다고 말했습니다. 일론 머스크 테슬라 최고경영자는 일요일 늦게 텍사스 테일러에 위치한 삼성의 새로운 칩 공장에서 자동차 회사의 차세대 AI6 칩을 생산할 것이라고 말했지만 생산시기에 대해서는 자세히 설명하지 않았습니다.
placeholder
솔라나 가격 전망: SOL, 지지선 하회하며 매도 압력 가중솔라나(Solana, SOL)는 화요일 기준 $183 아래에서 하락세를 보이며 거래 중이다. 전일 핵심 지지선을 하회 마감한 이후, 매도 우위 전환을 나타내는 현물 테이커 누적 거래량 델타(CVD)가 음전환되면서 약세 시나리오에 힘이 실리고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 29 일 화요일
솔라나(Solana, SOL)는 화요일 기준 $183 아래에서 하락세를 보이며 거래 중이다. 전일 핵심 지지선을 하회 마감한 이후, 매도 우위 전환을 나타내는 현물 테이커 누적 거래량 델타(CVD)가 음전환되면서 약세 시나리오에 힘이 실리고 있다.
placeholder
비트코인·이더리움·리플 가격 전망: FOMC 앞두고 BTC·ETH·XRP 변동성 확대 대비비트코인(BTC)은 최근 2주간 $116,000~$120,000 구간에서 횡보세를 보이며 투자자들의 방향성 부재를 나타내고 있다. 이더리움(ETH)과 리플(XRP)은 주요 지지선 위에서 거래되며 반등 조짐을 보이고 있으며, 시장은 수요일 예정된 연방준비제도(Fed)의 기준금리 발표를 앞두고 3대 암호화폐 전반에 변동성 확대를 주시하고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
22 시간 전
비트코인(BTC)은 최근 2주간 $116,000~$120,000 구간에서 횡보세를 보이며 투자자들의 방향성 부재를 나타내고 있다. 이더리움(ETH)과 리플(XRP)은 주요 지지선 위에서 거래되며 반등 조짐을 보이고 있으며, 시장은 수요일 예정된 연방준비제도(Fed)의 기준금리 발표를 앞두고 3대 암호화폐 전반에 변동성 확대를 주시하고 있다.
goTop
quote