Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water ahead of Fed rate call
- The Dow Jones saw very little movement in pre-Fed trading.
- The Fed’s rate call is locked in as a hold, but markets are looking for signs of a September cut.
- Market tensions continue to coil ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was little changed through the early Wednesday session, trading in a tight circle around 44,600 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest interest rate decision. Another rate hold is a foregone conclusion for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as knock-on effects from tariffs pose a credible threat to the United States’ (US) inflation outlook.
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth came in stronger than expected, with the US economy growing 3.0% on an annualized basis through the second quarter, outpacing the 2.4% forecast. Investors remain fixed on the Fed, however, and equity markets remained largely unchanged post-GDP release.
Key “Magnificent Seven” earnings will be posted on Wednesday after the closing bell. Social media giant and aspiring tech giant Meta Platforms (META), alongside software monolith Microsoft (MSFT), will be posting their latest quarterly earnings reports.
What a difference 24 hours makes
On the trade and tariff front, the Trump administration has done an about-face within the span of a single day. On Tuesday, the Trump team proclaimed that the US is nearing a conclusion in trade talks with China and that a wave of successfully negotiated trade deals was earmarked for imminent announcement. On Wednesday, the tone has completely changed: US negotiators abruptly ended trade talks with China, with US President Donald Trump reaffirming his self-imposed deadline of August 1 for the restart of global reciprocal tariffs. Trump also announced a flat 25% tariff on all goods bound for the US from India. Trump also reiterated his intent to start a “penalty” tariff on any country that buys Russian Crude Oil products if Russia doesn’t solve its war in Ukraine within the next ten days.
Dow Jones five-minute chart
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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