Gold trades with positive bias below $4,400; Fed hike bets cap gains ahead of US CPI
- Gold regains positive traction on Wednesday, though the upside potential seems limited.
- Geopolitical risks and Fed-hike bets support the safe-haven USD, which could cap gains.
- Traders might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial US inflation figures.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from the $4,435 region, or the highest level since June 5. The commodity, however, remains below the $4,400 mark as traders await key US inflation figures for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Friday's weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report pointed to signs of a cooling labor market and undermined the case for the Fed to raise interest rates. Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices, which might force the US central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, crude oil prices climbed to a one-and-a-half-week high on Tuesday after an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the US meets Tehran's demands.
Adding to this, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, particularly targeting Saudi-linked ships. This led to increased war-risk premiums, which act as a tailwind for crude oil prices and should benefit the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, hawkish Fed expectations remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, further underpinning the buck and warranting caution before positioning for an extension of the XAU/USD pair's strong move up witnessed over the past week or so.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlighted that the sharp move in energy markets added to pressure on rates, noting that Brent crude “(+4.99% to $87.72/bbl) rallied past $85/bbl for the first time this month, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+6.2bps) unwound the entirety of its decline after Friday’s payrolls with September Fed hike pricing returning to above 50% ahead of tomorrow's CPI.” According to the bank, “that backdrop of higher oil prices and rate hike speculation meant it was a tricky session for sovereign bonds around the world,” with a “consistent picture of yields moving closer back to the highs from late-July.”
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The metal is hovering around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), though it remains capped beneath a dense band of overhead resistance, starting with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June fall and extending towards the 200-day SMA at $4,500.51, suggesting that bulls need a clear break higher to regain control.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,388.33, with further cushions at the 38.2% retracement at $4,298.48 and the 23.6% level at $4,161.40. A break below the latter could expose the structural floor around $3,939.81.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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