Gold declines below $4,100 as US–Iran tensions revive inflation worries, Fed rate hike bets
- Gold price drifts lower to near $4,075 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking energy-driven inflation fears.
- Fed policymakers were split on the future of interest rates at their June meeting, Fed Minutes showed.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,075 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its downside as US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Trump stated that an interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was "over." Additionally, US President threatened to bomb Iran for a second day and reimpose the US naval blockade in retaliation for attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
"The main factor for today's move is the increased escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with a potential ceasefire over, we've seen risk assets across the board trade lower, gold included," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Renewed tensions between the US and Iran raise energy-driven inflation fears and could reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation. This, in turn, could weigh on gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
Swap traders are now pricing the likelihood of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting at more than 30%, up from less than 20% last Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The minutes of the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting released Wednesday showed a few policymakers said there was a case for hiking rates, though they ultimately supported the decision to leave rates on hold. The minutes reflected growing concern among Fed officials over inflation just as worries about the labor market slightly receded.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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