WTI Oil uncertain after Trump-Xi talks as IEA warns of persistent supply deficit
- Donald Trump and Xi Jinping talks ease concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and support market sentiment.
- The International Energy Agency still maintains a global Oil supply deficit outlook linked to the Iran war.
- WTI dropped to $95.50 following the initial market reaction before rebounding toward $97.30.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $97.30 at the time of writing on Thursday, up 0.34%, in a trading day marked by elevated volatility. The US Crude Oil benchmark initially fell to as low as $95.50 following the market's first reaction to discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, before erasing losses and returning to positive territory.
The price reversal comes after White House officials described the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents as "good", highlighting discussions aimed at strengthening economic cooperation. Both leaders also agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open, a particularly sensitive issue for Oil markets given the strategic importance of the passage for global Oil trade.
The comments reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into energy prices in recent weeks. Markets were closely watching discussions regarding Iran, with Donald Trump expected to encourage Beijing to push Tehran toward a peace agreement and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump also stated that he had held "extremely positive and constructive" discussions with Xi Jinping, while announcing that he had invited the Chinese leader to the White House on September 24. Meanwhile, Xi stressed the importance of stable relations between both countries, stating that China and the United States (US) should become partners rather than rivals.
However, global supply prospects continue to provide underlying support to Oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that global Oil supply is expected to remain below demand this year due to disruptions caused by the Iran war in the Middle East. The agency now forecasts a decline in global supply of around 3.9 million barrels per day this year, a significant revision from its previous estimate.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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