USD/CAD weakens below 1.3700 as investors assess Israel-Iran conflict
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.3695 in Friday’s Asian session.
- Trump is still considering whether to order a US strike on Iran’s nuclear program.
- Fed’s hawkish hold and lower crude oil prices could help limit the pair’s losses.
The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3695, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The US dollar (USD) edges lower after US President Donald Trump announced that he will decide on US involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict within two weeks. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is due later on Friday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to intensify attacks on “strategic targets” in Iran. His decision to escalate its military operation against Iran comes after an Iranian missile reportedly struck a major hospital in the southern city of Beersheba.
Nonetheless, the White House said late Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to order a US strike on Iran’s nuclear program. His latest stance signals a step back after a run of tough rhetoric, which lifts the riskier assets like the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and creates a headwind for the pair. Investors will watch for signs of whether the US will increase involvement in the conflict.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold the interest rates steady at its June meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank signaled a slower pace of cuts in the future amid concern that Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects to deliver two rate cuts later this year, according to the “dot plot.” The hawkish hold of the Fed could provide some support to the Greenback in the near term.
Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices might undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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