EUR/USD plunges below 1.15 as Trump threatens Iran, Dollar surges

출처 Fxstreet
  • EUR/USD sinks to 1.1484 as safe-haven flows favor the US Dollar.
  • Trump demands Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” DXY jumps to four-day high near 98.80.
  • Strong German ZEW data is overshadowed by Fed risks and Middle East escalation.

The EUR/USD pair is collapsing by over 0.60% as the US Dollar (USD) remains bid due to its safe-haven status amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran, which appears to be broadening as the White House considers its involvement. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1484, having dropped from daily highs of 1.1579.

Sentiment shifted sour as US President Trump posted on his social network a demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” boosting the Greenback, which is hitting a four-day peak, as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against other six currencies, posts a gain of over 0.67% at 98.79.

CNN reported that Trump’s decision to pursue a diplomatic exit from the Middle East conflict is waning, citing officials familiar with the matter. They added that Trump is evaluating using US military assets to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Aside from geopolitics, US economic data revealed that US Retail Sales fell for the second consecutive month. At the same time, Industrial Production, announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also contracted. Across the pond in the Eurozone, German ZEW data exceeded forecasts, while two European Central Bank (ECB) officials had turned slightly neutral, adopting a wait-and-see mode.

Given the current backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to resume its ongoing uptrend. However, the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, the release of its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Chairman Jerome Powell press conference can dictate the pair’s direction.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD plunges as sentiment worsens

  • EUR/USD extended its losses, shrugging off the contraction of US Retail Sales in May, primarily due to a downturn in auto purchases. Sales in May decreased by 0.9% MoM, below the forecasted 0.7% decline. On an annual basis, sales rose 3.3%, easing from a 5% increase recorded in April.
  • US Industrial Production declined by 0.2% MoM, missing estimates for a 0.1% uptick. This marks the second contraction in the past three months, indicating weakness in the manufacturing sector.
  • On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed hosts its latest monetary policy meeting. Traders have priced in the expectation that rates will remain unchanged, but they’re eyeing the update of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
  • Regarding reaching a deal with the Eurozone, US President Trump said the European Union (EU) is not yet offering a fair deal.
  • German ZEW data exceeded forecasts, with both metrics improving. ZEW noted that recent growth in investment and consumer demand has contributed to the upside.
  • ECB Francois Villeroy commented that monetary policy is in a good position, even though tensions in the Middle East have risen. He supports ECB President Lagarde’s idea of a global role for the Euro. ECB Stournaras stated that the ECB had reached a “first point of equilibrium” and that further rate cuts would be data-dependent, as revealed by Greek media.
  • It should be noted that the latest rise in Oil prices, sparked by the Middle East conflict, could trigger an inflation spiral, pushing prices higher and prompting central banks to become slightly hawkish.
  • Financial market players do not expect that the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.

Euro technical outlook: Bulls take a breather as EUR/USD drops below 1.1500

The EUR/USD uptrend trajectory is set to continue despite the ongoing pullback dragging spot prices below 1.15. Buyers are taking a respite, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting that bullish momentum is fading.

This could pave the way for an EUR/USD retracement towards 1.1450 or below, challenging the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1411. Once cleared, 1.1400 is up next.

Conversely, if EUR/USD bulls regain 1.1500, immediate resistance emerges at 1.1600, followed by June 16 at 1.1614 and the yearly peak of 1.1631.


Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
비트코인·이더리움·리플 전망: 주요 저항선 지지 전환… 강세 흐름 지속 여부 주목비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)은 이번 주 암호화폐 시장이 강세 분위기 속에서 출발함에 따라 상승 모멘텀을 되찾는 흐름을 보이고 있다. BTC는 박스권 돌파를 확인한 후 109,000달러 위로 회복하며 지지력을 확보했다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 07 일 월요일
비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)은 이번 주 암호화폐 시장이 강세 분위기 속에서 출발함에 따라 상승 모멘텀을 되찾는 흐름을 보이고 있다. BTC는 박스권 돌파를 확인한 후 109,000달러 위로 회복하며 지지력을 확보했다.
placeholder
Ripple CEO, 암호화폐 입법 촉구… ‘Crypto Week’ 앞두고 미 상원 청문회서 연설 예정Ripple 최고경영자(CEO) 브래드 갈링하우스는 다음 주 하원 '크립토 위크(Crypto Week)'를 앞두고, 암호화폐 시장 구조 법안의 필요성을 강조하기 위해 이번 주 수요일 미 상원 은행위원회 청문회에 참석할 것이라고 월요일 발표했다.
저자  FXStreet
7 월 08 일 화요일
Ripple 최고경영자(CEO) 브래드 갈링하우스는 다음 주 하원 '크립토 위크(Crypto Week)'를 앞두고, 암호화폐 시장 구조 법안의 필요성을 강조하기 위해 이번 주 수요일 미 상원 은행위원회 청문회에 참석할 것이라고 월요일 발표했다.
placeholder
이더리움 가격 전망: 샤프링크의 매입 확대에 힘입어 ETH 205,000개 돌파…강세 흐름 지속이더리움(ETH)은 화요일 2.7% 상승 마감했다. 샤프링크 게이밍(SBET)이 7,689 ETH를 추가 매입하며 보유량이 205,000개를 넘어섰다는 소식이 전해지자 매수세가 유입된 결과다.
저자  FXStreet
어제 01: 34
이더리움(ETH)은 화요일 2.7% 상승 마감했다. 샤프링크 게이밍(SBET)이 7,689 ETH를 추가 매입하며 보유량이 205,000개를 넘어섰다는 소식이 전해지자 매수세가 유입된 결과다.
placeholder
상위 3대 암호화폐 가격 전망 – 비트코인 횡보 유지, 이더리움·리플은 추가 상승 모색비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)은 주중 중반 혼조세 속에서도 낙관적인 흐름을 보이고 있다. BTC는 주요 지지선을 지키며 안정적인 모습을 보이는 가운데, ETH와 XRP는 강세 모멘텀이 재차 강화되는 흐름을 나타내고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
21 시간 전
비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)은 주중 중반 혼조세 속에서도 낙관적인 흐름을 보이고 있다. BTC는 주요 지지선을 지키며 안정적인 모습을 보이는 가운데, ETH와 XRP는 강세 모멘텀이 재차 강화되는 흐름을 나타내고 있다.
placeholder
비트코인, 2025년 들어 세 번째 사상 최고치 경신… 규제 명확성과 국고 수요가 상승세 견인비트코인(BTC)은 수요일 $111,980의 이전 고점을 돌파하며 사상 최고가를 또 한 번 경신, 현재 ‘가격 발견 구간(price discovery)’에 진입했다. 이는 2025년 들어 1월 20일, 5월 22일에 이어 세 번째 최고가 경신 기록이다.
저자  FXStreet
2 시간 전
비트코인(BTC)은 수요일 $111,980의 이전 고점을 돌파하며 사상 최고가를 또 한 번 경신, 현재 ‘가격 발견 구간(price discovery)’에 진입했다. 이는 2025년 들어 1월 20일, 5월 22일에 이어 세 번째 최고가 경신 기록이다.
goTop
quote