USD/CAD consolidates above 1.3500 ahead of busy US data week
- USD/CAD wobbles above 1.3500 as US labor market data takes center stage.
- Fed Powell pushed back market speculation for large rate cuts in November.
- The Canadian Dollar will be influenced by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for September.
The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range above the psychological support of 1.3500 in Tuesday’s European session. The Loonie asset turns sideways as investors await the United States (US) labor market and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which will indicate whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue with an aggressive monetary policy stance or shift to a gradual rate cut path.
Market sentiment appears to be cautious as S&P 500 futures have posted nominal losses in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends recovery to near 101.00.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in November, as they did on September 18, has eased to 35% from 58% a week ago.
Market expectations for the Fed’s large rate cut have slightly waned after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday, in which his comments indicated that the central bank is in no rush to reduce rates quickly. Powell expects that there will be two rate cuts of 25 bps in each of the remaining two meetings this year, if the economy performs as expected.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September and the JOLTS Job Openings data for August, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) will be guided by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for September, which is scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI has been correcting for 16 straight months.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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