Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.00 amid rising inflation, Treasury yields
- Silver loses as elevated oil prices and rising inflation fuel expectations for an upcoming US Fed rate hike.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates the odds for a Fed rate hike surged above 92%, driven by August's CPI inflation data.
- US 10-year Treasury yields approached 5%, placing heavy pressure on non-yielding metals like Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls for the second successive day, trading around $63.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver could face further depreciation as elevated oil prices heighten expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns, placing greater pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. As a result, money markets surged on Monday to reflect over a 92% chance of a rate hike, a sharp increase from roughly 60% just a week prior, based on data from the CME FedWatch tool.
Compounding these rate hike expectations, Friday's economic data revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in August, with core inflation recording its largest gain in four months. Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5% due to broader inflation and fiscal worries, placing additional downward pressure on non-yielding precious metals like Silver.
TD Securities maps cta reactions across Silver scenarios
According to TD Securities, their latest CTA tracker highlights that trend-following funds currently hold a "CTA positioning est., Silver" that is consistent with only a modest long, leaving room for adjustment as price action evolves. The bank’s scenario work explicitly differentiates between a "big downtape CTA positioning est., Silver," a more moderate "downtape CTA positioning est., Silver," and a "CTA positioning est., Silver, flat tape," underscoring how systematic flows could vary materially depending on whether the metal sells off sharply, drifts lower, or trades broadly sideways in the months ahead.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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