Australian Dollar: Pressured against US Dollar by softer CPI – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analyst highlight that AUD/USD is offered below 0.6950 after softer June Consumer Price Index (CPI), with markets scaling back expectations for an RBA hike. Technically, the pair has defended the March trough and 200-DMA near 0.6900, with resistance at 0.7025 and higher projection targets if that level breaks, while a sequence of lower highs keeps the bias cautious.

CPI miss and technical supports

"Spot offered below 0.6950 on June CPI."

"Sequence of lower highs since May is bearish. Inflation undershoot cements case for RBA status quo. Dec-26 OIS implied odds drop to 50%"

"AUD/USD defended both the March trough and the 200-DMA (now around 0.6900) resulting in a brief rebound."

"Notably, the decline in November 2025 also found support near this moving average."

"The recent pivot high at 0.7025 represents the first resistance. A break above this hurdle could signal an extension of uptrend."

"The next objectives could be located at the projections of 0.7090/0.7110 and 0.7200. The 200-DMA near 0.6900 is an important support."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)