Euro softens to near 1.1600 on US–Iran tensions
- EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1615 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump warned Iran that the "clock is ticking" as negotiations to bring the war to an end have stalled.
- Economists expect a quarter-point hike from the ECB in June.
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1615 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) extends the decline as the prolonged US-Iran conflict weighs on the riskier assets. Traders await the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone and the US, which are due on Thursday.
Iranian media reported on Sunday that the US had failed to make any concrete concessions in its response to Tehran's latest proposals to end the conflict. Fars news agency stated that Washington had set five main conditions for a peace deal, including the removal of uranium used by Iran’s nuclear program to the US, no US reparations to Tehran and the unfreezing of less than a quarter of Iran’s suspended assets.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened Iran to “get moving,” or seemingly face new consequences. Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran might continue to boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the major pair.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers hinted at an interest rate hike to tame sticky inflation expectations. This, in turn, could help limit the shared currency’s losses. The majority of economists from the Reuters poll, around 85%, indicated that the ECB would raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in June, up from just over half expecting that before the April meeting.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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