EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1550 as Fed rate cut bets decrease
- EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar gains on the fading likelihood of a Fed rate cut.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in a 69% chance of a cut in December, against 93% a week ago.
- ECB policymaker Villeroy said the central bank is well-positioned after its October policy decision.
EUR/USD edges lower and continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains subdued as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from dampening expectations for a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following the central bank’s decision to lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate for the second time this year to a range of 3.75%-4.0%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December is far from certain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a cut in December, down from 93% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
However, traders may adopt caution due to the prolonged government shutdown, which could fuel economic concerns in the United States (US). The US government impasse has now entered its sixth week with no easy endgame in sight amid a deadlock in Congress on the Republican-backed funding bill.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that the central bank is in a good position following the October policy decision. However, Villeroy added that this position is not a fixed one. "In view of various risks, including from the financial markets, we must maintain full optionality to act as necessary," he said, adding that agile pragmatisim based on data and forecasts will be required at their next meetings, more than ever.
ECB policymaker and Governor of the Central Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, said that risks to inflation and growth in the Eurozone are more balanced. ECB will move when needed, but shouldn't be jumpy, Kazaks added.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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