GBP/USD remains below 1.3650 ahead of UK CPI data
- GBP/USD holds losses ahead of the release of UK inflation and Retail Price Index data.
- The US Dollar may face challenges as the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.
- The likelihood of multiple Fed rate cuts this year strengthens after upbeat US Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 1.3640 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) inches lower against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the United Kingdom’s (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index data. Focus will shift toward the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision due later in the day.
The UK Consumer Price Index report is expected to show that headline inflation rose to 3.9% year-over-year in August from 3.8% prior. Meanwhile, the monthly inflation is expected to reach 0.3% from 0.1%. Signs of inflationary pressures accelerating would boost hopes that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates on hold at 4% on Thursday.
The GBP/USD pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) could weaken amid rising likelihood of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, with strong retail sales and labor data outweighing hotter inflation. Additionally, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s meetings in September, October, and December.
US Retail Sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month in August, following the 0.6% increase (revised from 0.5%) recorded in July, and came in better than the market expectation of 0.2%. Retail Sales Control Group and Retail Sales ex Autos both rose 0.7%, against the expected 0.4% increase. The sales report showed resilient consumer spending despite sticky inflation and a softening labor market.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets are fully priced in that the Fed will cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, the first reduction since December. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the ‘dot plot,’ will be eyed, where each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects the federal funds rate in the near future.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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