Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park expects the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% at the 29-30 October meeting, maintaining a hawkish tone. The bank notes upside inflation risks and firmer Tokyo CPI and PPI data, but highlights weak domestic demand and subdued consumption. December is seen as a live meeting, while January 2027 remains the base case for the next hike.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses ECB Chief Economist Lane’s argument that a larger global role for the euro could strengthen monetary policy transmission by extending its impact abroad and reducing exchange rate pass-through.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of Turkey to resume easing, cutting rates by 100bp to 36.00%, with further 100bp cuts in October and December to 35% by year-end. He notes improved inflation sentiment and contained fund-related risks but warns of weaker domestic demand. Despite crowded long TRY positions, he sees the carry trade persisting and forecasts USD/TRY at 51.50 by year-end.