If SpaceX Stock Falls Below $135, Here's the Move I'd Make

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has gone on a wild ride since its IPO on June 12. The aerospace and AI company went public at $135 per share, closed at a record high of $211.39 on June 16, but now trades at $145. Let's see why it fizzled out -- and if it's worth buying below its IPO price.

Why did SpaceX's stock initially soar?

SpaceX initially attracted a lot of attention because Elon Musk founded it, it was growing rapidly, and it had an early mover advantage in the space logistics, satellite, and AI markets. It capitalized on that hype by offering less than 5% of its shares in its IPO. It allocated about a fifth of those shares to retail investors rather than institutional investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025, but Musk declared it could generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That optimistic outlook -- which would require SpaceX to grow its top line at an unprecedented 121.7% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 -- attracted a stampede of bulls.

Why did SpaceX's stock give up most of those gains?

At its peak, SpaceX's market cap reached $2.64 trillion, or 58 times the $45.3 billion in revenue analysts expected it to generate in 2026. Some bulls might argue that its breakneck growth rates justify that premium valuation. Still, rising interest rates and Treasury yields drove investors toward more conservative investments over the following four months.

The tougher macro headwinds also made it tough to overlook SpaceX's massive losses. SpaceX's only profitable business division is Starlink, but the losses at its space and AI businesses are wiping out those profits.

In the first half of 2026, Starlink generated an operating profit of $2.84 billion, which was erased by the space segment's operating loss of $1.20 billion and the AI segment's operating loss of $3.73 billion. Those losses will widen as SpaceX ramps up production of Starship, the largest rocket ever built, and expands its AI business (which includes X, Grok, and Cursor).

Many investors also fretted over SpaceX's lockup expirations, which started in early August and will continue through the end of the year. With so much of its future growth already priced into its stock, it would be tempting for SpaceX's early investors and insiders to take some profits.

What would I do if SpaceX's shares drop below $135?

SpaceX will post its third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Oct. 20. Analysts expect its revenue to rise 65% sequentially -- with its AI revenue climbing 153%, Starlink revenue growing 15%, and its space revenue increasing 52%.

That quarter-over-quarter growth should be driven by the expansion of its AI infrastructure (which secured major contracts with Anthropic and other AI companies), the expansion of Starlink's satellite constellation and subscriber base, and its ongoing rocket launches.

Even if SpaceX matches or beats those estimates, it must grow its backlog -- which reached $47.5 billion at the end of June -- to impress the bulls. It should also lay out clearer plans for monetizing its AI business and kick-starting Starlink's direct-to-cell evolution (which was accelerated by its recent acquisition of 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management).

At $145, SpaceX still has a market cap of $2.0 trillion, or 45 times this year's sales. If it were to revisit its IPO price, it would be worth about $1.8 trillion, or 40 times this year's sales. The bulls will claim that's a reasonable price for a company that could potentially generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but the bears will argue that it will struggle to reach that ambitious goal.

I personally wouldn't touch SpaceX if it dips slightly below its IPO price, because it could trigger panic selling rather than contrarian buying in this volatile market. But if it sinks much lower, I'd consider nibbling on it as a long-term, speculative play in the space, satellite, and AI markets.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.