Nvidia Stock Could Have Its First Losing Year Since 2022. Here's What It Did After Its Last 7.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock ended 2025 at $186.50. As I write this, shares trade near $166, about 11% lower this year with about six weeks of trading left. On Nov. 12, the day the company announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as CEO, the stock briefly dropped to $148.80.

Unless shares get back to $186.50 or above by year-end, 2026 will be the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker's first losing calendar year since 2022. It'd be just the eighth losing year in the stock's history as a public company.

For shareholders, the history is encouraging, because the growth stock gained the year after five of its seven earlier down years. But the big rebounds all followed far deeper losses than this year's, at times when Nvidia's profits were shrinking. Neither is true now.

Image source: Nvidia.

Two kinds of losing years

The first group is the deep sell-offs. Nvidia stock dropped 83% in 2002, 76% in 2008, 31% in 2018 and 50% in 2022, and each time, profits were falling by year-end.

Nvidia's net income fell 49% in fiscal 2003 (the company's fiscal year ends in late January, so fiscal 2003 closely matches calendar 2002). Fiscal 2009 saw a $30 million net loss, after a profit of around $798 million a year earlier. And fiscal 2023's net income sank 55% to about $4.4 billion.

Notably, even 2018 fits. Fiscal 2019's profit climbed for the full year, but net income in the quarter ending in January 2019 fell 49% year over year.

Each of the four losing years was followed by a big rebound. The stock more than doubled in both 2003 and 2009, gained 76% in 2019 and more than tripled in 2023.

The second group looks very different. Nvidia stock dropped 18% in 2010, 10% in 2011, and 12% in 2012. Those were three mild losses in a row, and profits were mostly rising throughout.

Net income swung to $253 million in fiscal 2011 from the previous year's $68 million loss. It then grew 130% to $581 million in fiscal 2012 before dropping 3% in fiscal 2013.

And there was no quick rebound. It wasn't until 2013 that shares gained again, rising 31%.

Which kind is 2026?

On both counts, this year looks more like 2010 through 2012. An 11% decline is mild by Nvidia's standards. And profits aren't falling -- they're climbing fast.

Showing how far the business has come, Nvidia's net income grew 65% in fiscal 2026 (which ended in January) to around $120 billion. In the first half of fiscal 2027, the company earned $118 billion, almost matching all of the last fiscal year. Second-quarter net income alone rose 126% year over year to $59.7 billion.

And operating income, which strips out Nvidia's gains on its investments, climbed 19% from the first quarter to the second.

I think that difference matters for a shareholder. The big rebounds came after the stock had already priced in shrinking profits, so a recovery in earnings had a lot of room to lift the price. This year, shares dipped while profits kept climbing. That arguably makes a 2023-style surge less likely in 2027.

Even so, it also leaves the stock cheaper relative to what the company earns. Based on analysts' average estimate for fiscal 2028 (the year ending in January 2028), Nvidia trades at around 11 times earnings as I write. FactSet put the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 at about 18 on Nov. 5. Put another way, every dollar of Nvidia's expected profit costs investors less than the typical large company's.

A losing year isn't a reason to sell

Of course, where the stock heads next depends much more on Nvidia's earnings than on the calendar. The fiscal third-quarter report is due Tuesday, Nov. 17, and management's outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter could indicate whether profits can keep climbing at that first-half pace.

A mild losing year can also become a run of them, as it did from 2010 to 2012. But even that stretch was followed by a stock that gained in each of the next five years.

What does a down 2026 mean, then, for somebody who holds Nvidia shares going into 2027? On its own, not much. Going by 2010 to 2012, I wouldn't count on a quick rebound after a mild drop like this. But with profits still climbing and shares at around 11 times expected fiscal 2028 earnings, I wouldn't sell the stock over a losing year.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.