Why HawkEye 360 Stock Took Flight Friday
Key Points
HawkEye missed on earnings but beat on sales last night.
HawkEye burned cash in last year's Q3, but it's FCF-positive today.
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HawkEye 360 (NYSE:HAWK) stock, which held a successful IPO back in May, soared 16% through 12:40 p.m. ET despite reporting only mixed earnings last night.
This signals intelligence and analysis company lost money in Q3 -- about $200,000, a reversal of last year's Q3 profit. However, TheFly.com reports that HawkEye was only expected to net $56.4 million in sales in Q3 2026, but the company actually reported $59.3 million.
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Image source: Getty Images.
HawkEye 360 Q3 earnings (er, losses)
HawkEye's Q3 sales surged 84% year over year, and its backlog of $300.3 million suggests the company can keep going at its current rate for six more quarters even if it never wins another contract. International sales growth was a bit slower than domestic growth, but still more than respectable at 76% -- and CEO John Serafini says, "We expect international expansion will continue."
Losses, as calculated under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), may have been $200,000. Still, the company reported positive free cash flow for the quarter: $137,000, a positive development after burning cash last year.
What's next for HawkEye 360 stock
Turning to guidance, HawkEye expects to end this year with sales between $225 million and $227 million -- the entire range of which is above Wall Street estimates, with positive "non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA." That's obviously not a GAAP number, but so long as free cash flow remains positive, I'm fine with it.
In that regard, analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence predict HawkEye will end 2026 with positive FCF of $8.2 million, grow that nearly 50% in 2027 -- then more than triple it in 2028. At a valuation more than 175x current-year FCF, I can't call HawkEye stock "cheap" -- but at least it's headed in the right general direction.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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