$500 Invested in Boeing Today Could Be Worth This Much in 3 Years
Key Points
Boeing aims for $10 billion in free cash flow in 2029.
Its operational targets look conservative, implying significant upside potential for the stock if they are achieved.
- Motley Fool Issues Rare "Total Conviction" Buy Alert ›
If Boeing (NYSE:BA) hits a few milestones, the company could look much stronger in a few years, potentially driving a substantial rise in its share price. Here's what that could mean for investors dipping their toes into the market with a $500 investment in Boeing.
Boeing faces challenges, but the valuation is attractive
Management has set a medium-term target of $10 billion in free cash flow (FCF), and hitting it would show the company's returning to what might be called "normalized operations." In other words, it would mean ramping up production and deliveries of its narrow-body 737 MAX and its established wide-body 787, while certifying and making the first delivery of its new wide-body, the 777X.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Unfortunately, the company disappointed on that front recently by pushing back expectations for 737 MAX production, and the stock sold off accordingly. Still, I think there's reason to be optimistic based on Boeing management's new guidance.
CFO Jesus Malave outlined that the "building blocks of a $10 billion" in FCF "on a normalized basis" means a delivery rate of 52 a month on the 737 MAX, a delivery rate of 10 a month on the 787, and "a delivery rate and positive cash generation on a 777X program."
Boeing's updated outlook
All those building blocks could fall into place and, in fact, be surpassed by 2029. First, management expects the 777X to receive certification, make its first delivery next year, and become cash-flow positive in 2029. Meanwhile, management expects to reach a production rate of 52 per month on the 737 MAX in the second half of 2027 and to transition to a production rate of 10 per month on the 787 this year.
Image source: Getty Images.
While deliveries usually lag production by a few months, these operational targets suggest the "building blocks" of $10 billion in FCF could be in place by the end of 2027 -- implying Boeing could hit its FCF target earlier than in 2029.
As for valuation, $10 billion in FCF and a 20x price-to-FCF multiple imply a $200 billion market cap, or a 46% increase, meaning $500 invested now could be worth $730 in three years, with upside potential from a more aggressive ramp in 737 MAX production.
Should you buy stock in Boeing right now?
Before you buy stock in Boeing, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Boeing wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $341,157!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,037,753!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 834% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 207% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of November 12, 2026.
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
