Nvidia Stock Just Had Its Price Target Slashed 60%. Others Still Say Buy. Who's Right?

As uncertainty whirls around CEO Jensen Huang's blistering scandal, Wall Street can't agree on what Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is worth.

On Wednesday morning, Baird downgraded the chipmaker to Neutral from Outperform and cut its price target by 60%, to $200 from $500. Within hours, Morgan Stanley took Nvidia off its list of top stock ideas but kept its Overweight rating and a $300 target. That leaves two respected firms about $100 a share apart on the world's most important AI company.

The stock shrugged off both calls. Nvidia rose nearly 5% to about $177 by midday Wednesday as semiconductor stocks rallied after strong results from AI cloud company CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Even so, Nvidia is still about 26% below its Oct. 6 record close of $239.24.

The Bear Case: 2027 Is Getting Harder to See

Baird's concern isn't today's demand. Its analyst said lead times for Nvidia's newest chips remain stretched, with demand well exceeding supply.

Instead, the worry is next year. Baird said it is pushing back its 2027 data center forecasts due to a recent lack of visibility. Supply problems are the main reason, but the firm also sees possible softening in demand because spending by the big cloud companies could grow by 40% or slightly less in 2027.

Baird also said uncertainty about Huang's tenure supports a Neutral rating. Nvidia's board is investigating whether Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, after he acknowledged an affair with an executive at a company that buys Nvidia hardware. Nvidia's own annual report warns that it is "highly dependent on the services of our long-standing executive team."

The Bull Case: Nothing Has Changed in the Business

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's move looks bigger than it is. The firm removed Nvidia from its top picks because of a rule that a top pick that falls more than 25% from the day it was named is automatically dropped. Nvidia was named on Oct. 2.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said there is no change to the firm's view of a strong and durable AI buildout, but he acknowledged that near-term uncertainty will persist as investors debate how crucial Huang is to Nvidia's direction. Wells Fargo also has a $300 price target on Nvidia. The bank gave a $15 trim to the target on Tuesday but said it expects Nvidia to report solid earnings that will help assuage investor concerns about the durability of the AI investment cycle.

The latest numbers back up the bulls. In Nvidia's most recent quarter, revenue rose 106% to $96.2 billion, and data center sales reached $89 billion. The company guided for about $108 billion in revenue this quarter, even assuming no data center computing sales in China.

Who's Right?

Look closely, and the two firms aren't that far apart on the business. Both say demand is strong right now. Even Baird's cautious scenario has the largest customers increasing their AI spending by about 40% in 2027, which is a slowdown but still a lot of growth.

The real gap is about how much to discount the stock for a possible supply crunch and the chance that Huang leaves. At about $177, Baird's $200 target implies roughly 13% upside. Morgan Stanley's $300 target implies about 70%.

For long-term investors, the bull case looks better grounded in Nvidia's actual results, but the next week matters. Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Nov. 17, and investors should listen for a few things: whether its forecast for next quarter holds up, what management says about supply, and whether it addresses the board's investigation.

If the numbers stay strong and the investigation clears Huang, today's price could look cheap in hindsight. But if guidance slips, Baird's caution will look smart. Either way, investors who own Nvidia should keep the position at a size they can live with because the swings in AI stocks surely aren't over.

Jonathan Ponciano has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.