SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Plunges Over 20% Monthly, Risks Testing $100 Level

TradingKey - SpaceX Monthly Pullback Exceeds 20%! Bulls Retreat to $135 Level, Risking a Test of $100 Mark.

On November 3 Eastern Time, as voting day for the U.S. midterm elections arrived, market risk aversion escalated, with SpaceX (SPCX) stock price fluctuating in the $134–$140 range and touching its initial public offering (IPO) price level of $135. The market is closely watching whether it will experience a second retest down toward the key $100 defense line.

In early August, SpaceX's stock price built a bottom around $100 after oscillating, then gradually rebounded and strengthened, reclaiming major levels such as the $135 IPO price and the $150 first-day opening price, before rising to $176 on October 6, close to its June IPO high. However, SpaceX's rally could not be sustained, and the stock subsequently continued to decline, recording a cumulative pullback of 23% over the past month.

The core reason for the sharp monthly correction in SpaceX's stock price is that massive capital expenditure (CapEx) in AI and data centers has dragged down free cash flow. First, while SpaceX's Starlink business expanded rapidly in the airline and telecommunications sectors, the company's huge investments in xAI, rack-level data centers, and heavy rockets have put short-term operating margins and free cash flow (FCF) under pressure. Second, Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) experiencing valuation corrections triggered by excessively high CapEx further impacted SpaceX, which has been expected to serve as a giant vehicle for AI computing power and aerospace capacity.

On the share supply front, SpaceX faces a major impact. SpaceX saw a massive lockup expiration of 1.3 billion shares at the end of October, as some early institutional investors and executives executed Rule 10b5-1 plans to lock in profits, creating a short-term supply-demand imbalance. In addition, the market is highly concerned about the upcoming full lockup expiration in December, when over 90% of restricted shares will be released, making short-term bulls hesitant to chase prices higher.

Today is the official voting day for the U.S. midterm elections. Capital on the sidelines concentrated on deleveraging before the election, triggering quantitative stop-loss orders for SPCX after it broke below $140. However, if political uncertainty spreads following the midterm elections and the broader market continues to revalue high-valuation AI and tech stocks, SpaceX's stock price will align with extreme technical bearish expectations, seeking support downward at the round $100 floor. This level serves as a heavy buying defense line for long-term sovereign wealth funds and value-oriented institutions, making a further breakdown extremely unlikely.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView