SanDisk Stock Price Forecast: Can SanDisk Hold $1,400 as ChangXin Memory Tech Breakthrough Hits Memory Sector?

TradingKey - As of October 12 Eastern Time, SanDisk (SNDK) fell sharply by 5.97%, closing at $1,487.33 after touching an intraday low of $1,464.43; after falling 4.90% and 1.72% on October 8 and 9, respectively, it has pulled back by about 12% over three trading days. Recently, SanDisk's stock price has continued to pull back, putting overall pressure on memory sector stocks. The main reason is that after Chinese memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) disclosed its latest R&D progress in next-generation DRAM technology, the market began to re-evaluate the future competition and supply landscape of the global memory industry, sending memory-related stocks such as Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and SanDisk down in tandem.

ChangXin Memory Technologies stated that the company has made key progress in the R&D of its next-generation 4F² DRAM memory cell architecture, and plans to launch a new generation of DDR5 RDIMM server memory using related technology before the end of 2026. Compared with the current mainstream 6F² architecture, the 4F² structure can feature more memory cells within the same chip area, thereby increasing storage density. Meanwhile, ChangXin Memory Technologies' fifth-generation DRAM manufacturing platform, G5, entered mass production in September.

From a market perspective, this news has significantly affected DRAM market expectations. Counterpoint data shows that ChangXin Memory Technologies' global DRAM revenue share rose to about 10% in the second quarter of 2026, up from approximately 4% in the same period last year; Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron held market shares of roughly 38%, 25%, and 24%, respectively, over the same period. If the next-generation technology can subsequently enter mass production, the market will need to re-evaluate long-term server DRAM supply and industry competition.

It should be noted that SanDisk's core business is mainly NAND flash memory and SSDs, and it does not directly produce DRAM. Therefore, CXMT's 4F² technology does not pose direct competition to SanDisk's product line. The parallel decline in SNDK reflects more of the market repricing the valuation of the overall memory sector, future supply increases, and technological advancements by Chinese manufacturers.

SanDisk daily stock price chart, Source: TradingView

From the daily chart of SanDisk's stock price, the price has continuously pulled back from near the $1,800 area in early October, falling to a low of $1,464.43 on October 12, and is now significantly below the 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages. The short-term price structure continues downward; however, the stock price has currently dropped near the 144-day moving average ($1,448). If the price stops falling and stabilizes at this level, it will welcome a rebound in the short term. Conversely, if this position is lost, the stock price may further test the $1,400 mark downward, with support further down at $1,325.