SanDisk Q4: Record Revenue $8.97B Beat, But Q1 Guidance Miss Spooks Investors as Stock Consolidates Near $1,600

TradingKey - SanDisk  (SNDK) said August 5 that consensus for Q4 FY2026 revenue was $8.64 billion, while the company reported $8.97 billion, a beat of approximately 3.8%. Additionally, analysts had an EPS estimate of $34.37, which SanDisk exceeded at $39.25 (+14.2%). Management said that gross margin for the quarter reached 84.6%. Shares dropped 5% after hours and continued to drop until the end of August after management said revenue for Q1 of FY2027 is expected to be in the range of $10.3 to $10.8 billion whereas, analysts' consensus was $11.16 billion. 

Shares dropped to $1,257 after the Q4 earnings announcement, but shares quickly moved to $1,596 by the 20th and 21st of August, consolidating above very important support at $1,511.88. While short term guidance wasn't good, the structural story for SanDisk is still in tact due to demand for AI in data centers, long term customer contracts (NBM framework), and the industry-wide NAND shortage. SanDisk is up 591% this year with very high volatility (3.83 Beta). 

SanDisk said at their Investor Day, on August 13, they target 80% non-GAAP gross margin and double digit revenue CAGR through 2030 with firm customer commitments of $93.9 billion.

Q4 FY2026: Record Revenue, Record Margin, but Forward Guidance Miss

Revenue for 4Q of FY2026 was $8.97B (+51% sequentially), up from $5.95B in Q3 (3Q FY2026). GAAP net income for 4Q was $6.90B ($43.97 diluted EPS). Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25 compared to $34.37 (14% beat). Gross margin was 84.6% record setting for 4Q. 

Data-center revenue was $2.98 billion, an increase of 103% from Q3. Data-center products accounted for almost 33% of 4Q revenue. Data-center products represented 38% of SanDisk’s bit mix at the end of FY2026 (12% a year ago). 

Revenue growth for 4Q was approximately one-third from volume, and two-thirds from price. There was good expense control for the year. Revenues for FY2026 were $20.25 billion, an increase of 175% from FY2025. Free cash flow run rate was estimated at $20B. Excess cash was returned completely to the shareholders. There was a remaining authorization of $15.5B after the $14B purchase authorization was increases.

Q1 FY2027 Guidance Miss: Supply Concerns and Inventory Caution

Guiding to revenue of $10.3-10.8B in Q1 FY2027 (consensus: $11.16B) implies a significant miss, and shocked the market. This miss signals in the market slower market momentum going forward. Q1 is guided to EPS of $44-46 compared to the expected $45.58, indicating customer hesitation and the potential for an inventory correction in the hyperscale data centers given the strong buildout of AI compute. During his comments at the Investor Day, David Goeckeler noted that the demand for NAND is greater than the supply, and that the supply is starting to normalize. This is further evidenced by the Q1 miss. Goeckeler believes that the supply is starting to normalize and that the buyers are starting to be cautious.

New Business Models (NBM): $93.9B in Long-Term Customer Commitments

After the April SanDisk earnings call, the company has secured five additional NBM contracts, and have a total of ten contracts for eight customers. With these contracts valued at $93.9 billion at floor pricing of $0.29/gigabyte, this is effectively 4.6x of FY2026 revenues. The weighted average contract term is greater than four years. NBM is essentially a contracted shift away from spot-market sell transactions to fixed price, extended contracts with hyperscalers. The trade off is that the price is locked in, and value will be more significant should NAND prices increase, but the revenue is predictable and stable during a potential downturn.

Data Center Revenue Inflection: +103% Sequential Growth, 38% of Mix

Data center revenue is dominating the revenue growth. Electronic data center revenue was $2,977M, representing a 103% sequential increase from the same revenue in the previous quarter. For FY 2026, data center products accounted for approximately 38% of SanDisk’s bit mix, up from just about 12% a year ago. With the current growth, data center is the largest overall market (TAM) within SanDisk’s product portfolio, versus edge and consumer combined. 

Demand for inference chips, accelerated computing and large data workloads all create the need for flash memory. SanDisk’s NBM agreements are projected to provide approximately 50% of FY 2027 bit shipments, and more than 60% of FY 2028 bit shipments.

Investor Day Targets (Aug 13): 80% Margin, Double-Digit Growth Through 2030

During Investor Day this year, SanDisk set some long term goals for their company. These goals include an 80% non-GAAP gross profit, double digit growth, an operating margin of 75%, and sustained demand for AI and a persistent NAND shortage through 2030. SanDisk anticipates enterprise data-center flash demand will hit 1.2 zettabytes by 2030, and data center will be their fastest growing segment. The targets set are aggressive, but are justified by NBM contracts and the current industry trends.

Technical: $1,511.88 Pivot, 50% Fib Resistance $1,673.80, RSI Neutral

SNDK is trading in the $1,596-$1,600 range. Key support is at $1,511.88. First resistance is at $1,673.80, and thereafter at $1,834.02. RSI is neutral, at approximately 55 and momentum is flattening after being positive. SNDK has a 3.83 Beta and $2,354.39 is the 52-week high and $43.20 is the low. The stock is up 591% YTD.

SanDisk Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Key Technical Levels

• First support: $1,511.88 (pivot)
• Next support: $1,498.71
• First resistance: $1,673.80
• Next resistance: $1,834.02 and thereafter $1,942.91 and $2,044.64
• 52-week high: $2,354.39 (June 22)

Bottom Line: Q4 Beats, But Q1 Miss Signals Caution — NBM Visibility Intact

SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.97B (beating estimates and up 51% seq) and SNDK posted $39.25 EPS (beat). Data centers grew 103% seq, to $2,977M, making up 38% of the mix. Gross margin was a record 84.6% and NBM was $93.9B with a weighted average contract value of greater than 4 years. Q1 guidance was a miss at $10.3B-$10.8B and $44-$46 EPS. Investor Day is $44-$46 EPS and guidance is 80% margin and double digit growth to $500B flash TAM by 2027. The stock is YTD up 591%.

Technically: SNDK is consolidating at the pivot $1,511.88 with resistance at $1,673.80 and neutral RSI at approximately 55. The high volatility Beta is 3.83. If price breaks support at $1,511.88, next support is at $1,498.71. If price breaks resistance at $1,673.80, next targets are $1,834.80 to $1,942.80.