SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Shares Surge 26% After First Lock-Up Expiration; Will Rally Continue?

TradingKey - During overnight trading on August 10 Eastern Time, SpaceX ( SPCX) extended its gains from last week, rising an additional 1.12% to trade at $134.9, inching closer to its IPO price of $135. On Thursday of last week (August 6), when SpaceX faced its first lock-up expiration of approximately 911 million shares, the stock did not collapse as expected, but instead staged a dramatic reversal, gaining over 26% cumulatively to date.

Why SpaceX Stock Surged Instead of Falling After Lock-Up Expiry

Prior to the initial lock-up expiration, SpaceX's stock price had already fallen for several consecutive weeks due to market concerns over heavy selling pressure and AI capital expenditures (CapEx) of up to $18.4 billion in the Q2 earnings report, dipping to an all-time low of nearly $105 on August 5. On the day of the unlock, early investors and insiders did not engage in panic selling, and the "hundred-billion-dollar selling pressure" failed to fully materialize. This exceeded market expectations, triggering short covering and the rapid entry of sidelined capital, which drove a powerful rebound in the stock price.

As the lock-up expiration caused the free float to surge from approximately 639 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, it resolved the market's previous bottlenecks of an excessively small float and insufficient liquidity. Instead, this prompted large institutions and passive funds (ETFs) tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index to build up sufficient positions at more reasonable costs.

Will SpaceX Stock Price Continue to Rise?

Currently, the market outlook for SpaceX leans optimistic, with many institutions setting price targets generally above the current share price, and some even expecting it to continue rising to new highs. Among them, Argus Research believes SPCX will rebound to $160; Bank of America reiterated its buy rating post-earnings, maintaining its price target of $235; Bernstein is more aggressive, raising its price target from $239 to $248.

SpaceX's share price is approaching $135 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level), which is the first technical resistance level for a rebound after a decline. Overlaid with the IPO cost basis, selling pressure is inevitable, presenting significant resistance. If it fails to break through this level, SPCX's share price could test $100 again. However, if bulls strongly absorb potential selling pressure, SpaceX's share price is expected to charge toward $150 before the next lock-up expiration (the second wave of lock-up expirations arriving on August 20).

SpaceX share price chart, Source: TradingView