Where Will TransMedics Group Stock Be in 10 Years?

Every year in the United States, roughly 100,000 people sit on transplant waiting lists. Some will wait years. Others won't make it. The problem isn't only a shortage of willing donors; it's that the organs that do become available often don't survive long enough to reach the right recipient. The traditional method of packing organs on ice gives surgeons a brutal clock to work against: A harvested heart, for example, may only have four to six hours before it's no longer viable.

TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX) is dismantling that constraint, and almost nobody is talking about it in the way they should be. TransMedics makes the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable machine that keeps donor organs warm, perfused with oxygenated blood, and in a functional metabolic state -- essentially keeping them alive outside the body during transport. Instead of racing the clock, surgeons can assess organ quality in real time before committing to a transplant. That changes everything about how transplant medicine works.

But what makes TransMedics genuinely interesting to me as a long-term investment isn't just the device. The company has spent years building the infrastructure around it. It's called the National OCS Program (NOP), and it's essentially a vertically integrated logistics operation, with its own fleet of 22 fixed-wing aircraft, coordination with ground transportation, and a clinical team that travels with each organ. Think of it less like a medical device company and more like a specialized logistics network that happens to transport living human organs.

That's a business model that competitors can't easily replicate with a single product launch.

What the next decade could look like

The kidney transplant market is where the 10-year story gets truly interesting. Kidney disease is the most common condition requiring a transplant. There are over 90,000 people waiting for kidneys in the U.S. alone, and TransMedics is actively developing an OCS Kidney program. If the company can crack kidney preservation and logistics the same way it has with hearts, livers, and lungs, the addressable market expands dramatically.

Then there's Europe. TransMedics recently announced a strategic investment in PAD Aviation, a Germany-based private aviation operator, with the explicit goal of replicating the U.S. NOP model across European transplant centers. The company also announced a ground transportation collaboration in Italy using Mercedes-Benz vehicles.

By 2035, it's realistic to imagine TransMedics as the dominant infrastructure provider for organ transplantation across the U.S. and much of Europe, with a kidney program that has opened a market significantly larger than its current organ mix.

None of this is guaranteed. TransMedics has been investing heavily in expansion, and operating expenses jumped meaningfully in the most recent quarter as the company scales its European ambitions. Gross margin compressed slightly year over year in the first quarter of 2026. If growth slows before the European NOP generates returns, the spending profile becomes harder to defend.

A good example of this has come over the last six months, during which shares have fallen by roughly 45%. Most of it came after a Q1 2026 earnings miss, in which profits were well below expectations. In my opinion, the culprit here wasn't the business breaking; it was spending. The company is simultaneously scaling while advancing the kidney program and building out clinical teams. That costs money, and Wall Street punished the margin compression hard.

But revenue still grew 21% year over year. To me, a company aggressively building proprietary infrastructure in a market it essentially created isn't a red flag -- it's exactly what you want to see.

Image source: Getty Images.

My take

To me, TransMedics is one of the more unusual companies in healthcare and tech right now. It's building something that looks less like a device business and more like a category-defining network. The OCS itself is the entry point, but the logistics infrastructure, like the aircraft, the teams, and the coordination, is what actually creates a moat.

In 10 years, if the kidney program delivers and Europe scales, this company could look dramatically different in size and reach than it does today. Investors willing to hold through near-term margin noise may be rewarded.

Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TransMedics Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.