Tesla Rises for Fourth Day to Return to $430. Analysts Expect Q2 Deliveries to Beat Forecasts, Potentially Boosting Continued Stock Recovery

TradingKey - On July 1, Eastern Time, Tesla ( TSLA) rose for the fourth consecutive day, with an increase of over 14%, pushing its stock price back to $430. As of press time, it was up 1.71% at $427.79. It is reported that against the backdrop of an overall weak global electric vehicle market, the market expects Tesla's second-quarter global deliveries to be approximately 396,500 vehicles, up about 3% from the same period last year.

[Source: TradingView]

For Tesla investors, the current focus on car sales is far less than the company's developments in AI, autonomous driving, and robotics. However, the cash flow generated by car sales remains crucial for Tesla.

Elon Musk has finalized capital expenditures of over $25 billion for the full year, triple the scale of last year, with key investments directed toward factory expansion, the Optimus humanoid robot, AI technology research and development, and the rollout of Robotaxi. Most of these long-term initiatives cannot generate revenue in the short term, making a stable automotive business still the core foundation to support such high investment.

By region, Tesla's automotive sales business has recovered simultaneously in the European and Chinese markets, with sales in the European market surging 57% year-on-year in the first five months; the Shanghai factory in China saw its shipments grow by 39% year-on-year in May. Meanwhile, the US market continues to face pressure due to the elimination of EV tax incentives, with demand even weaker than the low base from the same period last year.

Recently, Morgan Stanley raised its delivery forecast from the previous 373,000 vehicles to 413,000 vehicles. The bank stated that although the overall momentum in the US market remains soft, the recovery in the European and Chinese markets has been very strong and is expected to drive deliveries up 7.6% year-on-year. The core reason for raising the delivery volume is that vehicle registration data in the European market rose significantly year-on-year, with the April data continuing the recovery trend following the 2025 industry low. At the same time, the Chinese market also showed signs of recovery, with domestic sales in May achieving both month-on-month and year-on-year growth, ending a two-month consecutive year-on-year decline and indicating that the demand side is gradually stabilizing.

Market analysis suggests that if June delivery performance is strong, second-quarter delivery data is expected to slightly exceed expectations, thereby boosting the stock price which has been under continuous pressure recently.

It is worth noting that Michael Burry, the well-known hedge fund manager who inspired "The Big Short," stated that he has established new short positions against Nvidia, Applied Materials, and Tesla. He shorted Tesla at a price of $416 and said he was glad it bounced back to this level.

The latest summary of analyst ratings shows that Wall Street investment banks are generally optimistic about Tesla's prospects, but the divide between bulls and bears is massive. A total of 23 analysts have rated Tesla in the past three months, with the highest target price at $600, the lowest target price at just $125, and the average target price at $431.65.