Can Nvidia Stock Double by 2030?

Before Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) released the results for its 2026 fiscal fourth quarter last week, I thought the only way that the stock would rise in the report's wake was if management provided a stellar outlook. I was wrong, though. Nvidia provided both an outstanding report and a stellar outlook, and the stock still fell after earnings.

In previous articles, I did note that with the market in high anticipation, it could be challenging for Nvidia to meet its bar for satisfaction under any circumstances. There are nearly insurmountable fears about the future that are propelling negative investor sentiment, and there's little the company can do to quell those fears.

It creates a strange dynamic for investors. Nvidia stock looks cheap, trading at only 17 times one-year forward earnings. That looks like a bargain price for a company growing as fast as Nvidia is. But the market doesn't seem to be interested in pushing the stock higher.

Can Nvidia stock bounce back? And could it double your money by 2030?

Image source: Nvidia.

A nearly flawless performance

By all accounts, Nvidia had a phenomenal fiscal fourth quarter. In the period, which ended Jan. 25, revenue increased 73% year over year, and earnings per share were $1.62, up from $0.89 last year and beating Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.54. In its fiscal 2027 first quarter, management is guiding for revenue to increase 77% year over year, keeping up the momentum.

Even more, it sees a clear path forward. Demand for its wares remains strong, and it's launching new, more powerful products to generate higher engagement and sales.

On the fiscal Q4 earnings call, CFO Collette Kress said that Nvidia's data center business is now 13 times the size it was when ChatGPT first came out about three years ago, and while data center chip supply is constrained, the company believes that it has the ability to fulfill demand into 2027.

The road to doubling your money

In a typical situation, a business doubling its top line should lead to the stock price doubling too, with many caveats. Nvidia's price-to-sales ratio of 20 is actually fairly expensive. Keeping that ratio constant and theorizing that it manages a 50% compound annual sales growth rate over the next four years, Nvidia's revenues and its stock price would more than quadruple. That would bring its market cap to about $22 trillion. Even if its price-to-sales ratio slid to 10, it would hit $10 trillion, more than double today's market cap.

On an earnings basis, it's quite cheap, trading at only 36 times trailing earnings. If it keeps that ratio constant, and the bottom line grows at a compound annual rate of 25% over the next four years -- lower than its fourth-quarter increase of 34% -- net income would reach $292 billion in four years -- well more than double its 2026 total of $120 billion.

All this is just an exercise to see if it's reasonably and mathematically possible for Nvidia to double your money by 2030. I can't guess what the likelihood is that it will, especially considering the state of the market's sentiment recently -- but it certainly looks like a possibility.

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.