Oil Hits $111, Iran Names New Leader — Bitcoin Dips Below $66K
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $66,000 on Monday before partially recovering. Oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2022. Iran also named a new supreme leader, deepening the geopolitical uncertainty that has gripped financial markets since the war began nine days ago.
The confluence of a leadership succession in Tehran, record oil prices, and open-ended US escalation has left crypto markets with no clear catalyst for recovery.
A New Supreme Leader, A Longer War
West Texas Intermediate crude surged as high as $111.24 per barrel at the Asian open — a 22% intraday jump — while Brent crude traded near $110, roughly $40 higher than last Friday. The moves follow last week’s record 36% gain in WTI, marking one of the most violent episodes in oil price history. US equity-index futures fell at the open as the dollar strengthened.
The catalyst was a weekend of compounding shocks. Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader on Sunday. The IRGC pledged full obedience. Rather than opening a path toward de-escalation, the succession appeared to harden Iran’s posture: the country’s armed forces said they could sustain at least six months of high-intensity conflict at the current pace and would soon begin deploying more advanced, rarely-used long-range missiles.
Hormuz Closure Tightens the Screw
The UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil production as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The UAE, OPEC’s third-biggest producer, reduced output from its offshore fields; Kuwait, OPEC’s fifth-biggest producer, cut crude oil and refinery production. Israel struck fuel depots in Tehran’s Kuhak and Shahran districts and the city of Karaj, with Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen warning that refineries and power stations remain on the target list.
A water desalination plant in Bahrain was struck by an Iranian drone — a significant escalation given that Gulf states depend on such facilities for most of their fresh drinking water. Late Sunday, Kuwait intercepted three ballistic missiles and destroyed two drones near its international airport.
The US State Department ordered the departure of American employees from Saudi Arabia, a step beyond the previously voluntary evacuation. President Trump said the US is considering broader strikes and is weighing the deployment of special forces to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile.
The Macro Math for Bitcoin
Oil above $100 effectively closes the door on the rate-cut scenario that had been crypto’s main macro tailwind. A March Fed move was already off the table before the war began; with WTI at $111 and no resolution visible, a June cut looks equally remote. That keeps the dollar strong, real yields elevated, and Bitcoin trading as a risk asset rather than a store of value — the worst combination for a sustained recovery.
The scale of the disruption has few modern precedents. The Strait of Hormuz has never been fully closed during an active conflict involving the US. Gulf producers are simultaneously cutting output as storage fills. Oil infrastructure from Tehran to Kuwait City is under active fire — all at once.
Trump, for his part, signaled no intention of pulling back. Writing on Truth Social on Sunday, he dismissed the oil price surge as a temporary and acceptable cost, predicting prices would fall sharply once Iran’s nuclear threat was eliminated. The post offered little comfort to markets pricing an extended conflict — and did nothing to suggest the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon.
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