Crypto Bettors Say Sub‑$150,000 Bitcoin Is the Base Case for 2026 -- Here's How Investors Can Still Win
Key Points
According to prediction market traders, Bitcoin will likely end the year in a price range between $55,000 and $75,000.
If Bitcoin has further to fall, then investing in prediction market event contracts could be one way to profit.
Investing in Bitcoin-related stocks could be another way to profit from growth in the Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem.
- 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›
After taking a quick look at the Polymarket odds for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), you'll probably be tempted to look elsewhere for upside in 2026. A clear majority of Polymarket traders think that Bitcoin will be rangebound between $55,000 and $75,000 for the rest of the year.
But that doesn't mean you can't still make money on Bitcoin this year. Here are a few ideas for turning a profit in a down year for Bitcoin.
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Bet against Bitcoin
What's the old saying? "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." The same goes for Bitcoin. If you absolutely think Bitcoin is done for the year, then why not start predicting that Bitcoin will decline in price over the course of 2026?
Image source: Getty Images.
On Polymarket, traders are giving Bitcoin a 78% chance of hitting $55,000 this year, a 63% chance of hitting $50,000 this year, and a 51% chance of hitting $45,000 this year. You could easily buy event contracts at any one of those price points, and then cash in as soon as Bitcoin falls in price from its current level of $68,000.
You can also predict that Bitcoin will go (almost) all the way to zero. Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin a 4% chance of hitting rock bottom at a price of just $5,000. Just be forewarned: Those are roughly the same odds (5%) that Polymarket traders give Bitcoin to hit a price of $250,000 this year. Which one do you really think is more likely?
Bitcoin-related stocks
Another strategy for making money in a down crypto market is looking for different plays within the Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem. You can still get exposure to Bitcoin, but in a more indirect manner, by investing in Bitcoin-related stocks.
For example, you could invest in Bitcoin mining stocks. The hottest players right now are Bitcoin miners that are transitioning some of their compute power to AI. These stocks give investors exposure to both Bitcoin and artificial intelligence.
Or, you could invest in Bitcoin treasury companies. For a long stretch of time, Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) was able to outperform Bitcoin. However, starting in mid-2025, that trade started to fizzle. Strategy is down 10% for the year and 45% over the past 12 months.
Bitcoin derivatives
Finally, there's one super-risky strategy that could pay off big: Trading Bitcoin financial derivatives. For example, hedge fund managers are buying and selling options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT), which now ranks as the top Bitcoin ETF in the world, in terms of assets under management (AUM).
If you think about it, prediction market event contracts are similar to deep out-of-the-money call options. For example, if you predict that Bitcoin will climb back to the $100,000 price level this year, then you are really buying a long-dated call option with a $100,000 strike price and a December 2026 expiration.
From my perspective, it's a lot easier to figure out the correct pricing for a Bitcoin event contract than a Bitcoin call option. You don't need a sophisticated options-pricing model or any knowledge of "the Greeks." I'm personally in the camp that ultra-cheap Bitcoin prediction market contracts are the way to go if you're determined to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin.
What about a long-term buy and hold strategy?
Long-time crypto investors recognize what's happening with Bitcoin right now. It's going through one of its famous four-year cycles of boom and bust.
So just wait around a little bit longer, and the price of Bitcoin should eventually recover. If that's the case, then the ultimate strategy for Bitcoin remains unchanged: Buy Bitcoin at super-cheap prices, and hold on for dear life (HODL).
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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