Bitcoin Crashed 29% Before SpaceX’s IPO. Is Anthropic’s Debut Doing It Again?

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $73,000 on Tuesday for the first time since August 20, about a week before Anthropic is expected to start trading on Nasdaq. The drop follows the same path Bitcoin took before SpaceX’s record listing in June.

Some traders argue that giant share sales pull cash out of riskier assets like Bitcoin. Yet in June, the coin kept falling after SpaceX listed. Holders waited two months for a lasting rebound.

How Far Did Bitcoin Fall Before SpaceX Listed?

Bitcoin lost nearly 29% between its May high and its June low. SpaceX debuted on June 12 after raising more than $85 billion.

Bitcoin Anthropic IPO chart comparing BTC’s drop before the SpaceX IPO with its drop before the expected Anthropic IPO, Source: TradingView

The coin hit about $59,000 on June 5, a week before the debut. It then set a lower low near $57,700 on July 1. It stayed below $67,000 until August 19.

This time, Bitcoin has shed nearly 17% from its September 21 peak above $87,000. It traded at $72,891 at press time, down 2.7% in 24 hours.

“That’s TWO major IPO events coinciding with massive Bitcoin corrections,” noted Crypto Rover, a popular user on X.

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude chatbot, set a range of $70 to $78 per share. Trading is expected to start November 19. The company cut its IPO size to $64.4 billion on Tuesday.

Why Would an AI Stock Sale Hit Bitcoin?

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made the case in a November 5 newsletter. He argued new AI shares will absorb bank credit, the dollar supply he credits for crypto rallies. BeInCrypto reported his AI IPO dilution warning when Bitcoin traded near $80,000.

Hayes also conceded the bank data he cited was a single weekly reading. In the same way, two listings make a small sample.

Bitcoin’s own market is also thinner. Average daily spot volume, the coins bought and sold outright on exchanges, has fallen to 126,000 BTC in 2026, according to Coin Metrics data compiled by Unfolded.

Bitcoin’s average daily spot trading volume by year, 2016 to 2026 (2026 data through November 9). Source: Unfolded

That is the lowest yearly level since 2016. It is also 72% below the 453,000 BTC traded each day in 2022, and 16% below 2025.

Fewer coins changing hands could mean more supply now sits in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and long-term wallets. That leaves thinner markets, where large sell orders can move the price further.

US inflation adds pressure. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and meets again in December.

Economist Peter Schiff pointed to a longer slide.

“In its 18-year history, Bitcoin never fall two calendar years in a row. But it fell 6.34% last year, and so far in 2026 it’s down 16.5%.”

Anthropic’s first trades, expected November 19, will test whether the June sequence repeats, or whether US inflation now sets Bitcoin’s direction.