Ethereum Price Forecast: Whales absorb retail distribution as bear market nears late stage​

Ethereum price today: $1,905

• Ethereum whale holdings have expanded while retail balances have shrunk in 2026.
• BTC and XRP exhibit similar patterns, but are trading above their realized prices, unlike ETH.
• ETH struggles for direction in a tight EMAs range.

Ethereum (ETH) large holders have been accumulating the supply of retail investors in 2026.

In a report released late Wednesday, CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that the supply of the 1K-10K ETH cohort has fallen from 15.6 million ETH in January to roughly 12.9 million ETH. The distribution pattern in this cohort accelerated in early January and late April, preceding notable declines in the top altcoin.

In contrast, the 10K-100K ETH cohort has been on a buying spree, adding 5.6 million ETH between mid-2025 and Thursday. This cohort's balance rose from 14 million ETH to 19.6 million ETH during the period.

In addition, mega-whales, with a balance of 100K+ ETH, were major buyers, recording net inflows of 1.8 million ETH since mid-2025. The report noted that the cohort's balance dropped to 2.6 million ETH in mid-2025 before accelerating to 4.2 million ETH in February and then 4.6 million in May.

"Combined with the 10k–100k cohort's new highs, the largest holders are absorbing the supply that smaller wallets are releasing,” CryptoQuant wrote.

The divergence between whale and retail cohorts comes as ETH trades at $1,900, far below its realized price or average on-chain cost basis of ~$2,450. The report highlighted that "ETH bottomed in early 2025 at a similar price level and distance from its lower band realized price."

Bitcoin, XRP also see rising whale accumulation

Measuring how other top crypto assets fare in the same metrics gives insights into whether the wider market is behaving the same way.

After falling to a low of 2.87 million BTC last December, the supply of whale holdings has expanded to 3.06 million BTC, with accumulation accelerating following the top crypto's decline below $60K in June, "a textbook 'buy-the-dip' footprint from large holders." The report highlights room for growth since their holdings sit below the 2025 bull-cycle peak of 3.23 million BTC.

At the same time, Bitcoin trades about 21% above its realized price of $52.9K.

Meanwhile, XRP metrics show large holders are accumulating but at a calm pace, even as it trades ~30% above its realized price of ~$0.75.

"The accumulation by large holders across all three assets, combined with valuations approaching their realized prices, signals that the bear market is likely in its last stage. The risk-reward ratio has declined significantly since the bear market began — but valuation leaves room for one more leg lower before the floor is confirmed,” the analysts concluded.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH faces EMAs' test again

Ethereum has seen $15.14 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $8.55 million in long liquidations.

On the daily chart, ETH is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,876 and $1,855, respectively. The top altcoin is advancing within a constructive short-term structure but remains capped by the 100-day EMA at $1,926, which forms the first significant topside barrier ahead of the horizontal resistance at $1,961.

Momentum is supportive rather than exuberant, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) around 54, suggesting steady buying interest without clear overbought signals.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day and 50-day EMAs at $1,855, both reinforcing an underlying demand zone above the horizontal floor at $1,809. A daily close below this cluster would expose deeper supports at $1,701 and $1,507.

On the topside, a break above the 100-day EMA at $1,926 would open the way toward the next resistance at $1,961, with further bullish extensions targeting $2,172 and then $2,431 if buying pressure accelerates.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)