Bitcoin could bottom in Q3 as early signs of accumulation begin to form — Glassnode

• Bitcoin could reach a bottom in Q3 as on-chain metrics point to accumulation, reduced speculation and stronger long-term holder conviction.
• The global crypto market cap fell 12% in Q2, while stablecoin supply reached record highs as investors rotated into defensive assets amid volatility.
• Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks declined to 0.12, while its correlation with gold increased to 0.57 over the same period.

Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be entering the early stages of a potential bottoming process, with on-chain data showing signs of accumulation amid broader market pressure, according to Glassnode in a Friday report.

The Q3 report, written in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, maintains a neutral outlook for the quarter. The firms suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a corrective phase toward accumulation while a firmer macro liquidity backdrop continues to weigh on the market.

Glassnode stated that the market remains under pressure from a firmer macro liquidity backdrop, with Bitcoin's price staying more dependent on the liquidity cycle than on crypto-specific catalysts.

The report states that the market should not yet be considered to have established a durable low. The current environment can instead be observed as the “early innings of a bottoming process.”

Crypto market cap dipped in Q2 as stablecoin supply reaches record highs

Glassnode stated that the broader crypto market experienced a difficult second quarter, with the total market cap falling by around 12%. The sustained correction phase fueled the drop throughout the quarter as risk appetite remained subdued.

However, stablecoin supply reached record highs during the period, with the sector's dominance also seeing a notable increase. The contrast with stablecoins signaled investors were rotating into stablecoins to wait out market volatility while remaining within the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin’s performance has also increasingly diverged from its historical cycle patterns. The report noted that the current cycle, which began in 2022, has now passed 42 months and began to diverge from the 2015-18 cycle in the first quarter of 2025 as long-term holders reduced risk.

The top crypto has also become less correlated with US equities. BTC daily return correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 in Q2 2026, down sharply from 0.58 in Q4 2025.

At the same time, Bitcoin's correlation with gold increased to 0.57. The report claims the shift reflected Bitcoin’s growing sensitivity to the same real-rate and liquidity forces affecting traditional stores of value.

Bitcoin accumulation rises amid reduced speculative activity

Bitcoin also continues to show signs that it may be moving toward an accumulation phase. Glassnode stated that BTC’s MVRV ratio approached 1 in Q2, a level historically associated with undervaluation and accumulation zones.

Meanwhile, the share of Bitcoin supply held in profit fell below its lower statistical band, placing the asset firmly within a historical accumulation zone heading into Q3.

The structure of Bitcoin’s supply also points to reduced speculative activity. BTC that last moved within the previous three months fell to multi-year lows, while the share of supply that had remained dormant for more than a year increased.

“This combination of thinning speculative activity and rising long-term holder conviction is more consistent with an accumulation phase rather than a distribution one,” the report said.

Bitcoin investor sentiment, however, remains weak. Entity-adjusted NUPL fell from its optimism band into the fear zone by the end of Q2 and is now close to the “Capitulation” band.

BTC's derivatives market also remains relatively restrained, with open interest well below its late-2025 peak, keeping leverage subdued.

Glassnode warned that risks remain, including renewed ETF outflows, another deleveraging event and a break of key support.

Bitcoin is trading at $64,140, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.