Two Rivals Eat Into USDC as Circle Stock Price Eyes a Drop to $40

Circle (CRCL) stock price rose nearly 5% on Friday to $66.14 after US regulators approved its national trust bank. Yet the stock still sits down about 20% this year, and its chart points lower.

The banking win gave buyers a reason to step in. However, a broken chart pattern, steady outflows, and rising stablecoin competition suggest the rally may not hold.

A Confirmed Bearish Pattern Keeps Stock Under Pressure

Circle stock formed a head-and-shoulders pattern between April and June. The stock broke below the pattern’s support line in late June. Since then, it has failed to reclaim that lost ground.

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Volume tells the same story. Selling stayed steady between late June and July 10, while buying volume slowly faded, a sign of weak demand.

If buyers were returning, money-flow data would show it. So far, it does not.

Big Money Keeps Leaving Circle

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure of institutional buying and selling pressure, sits at -0.38. A negative reading means money is flowing out of the stock.

The indicator has dropped steadily since May and remains below zero. This suggests large investors kept selling even after the bank charter news.

For the CMF to turn bullish, it must first rise above its descending trendline, then above zero. Part of that selling traces back to a growing threat in Circle’s core business.

Stablecoin Rivals Are Eating Into Circle’s Business

Circle earns most of its revenue from the reserves backing USDC. On June 30, a rival called Open USD (OUSD) launched with support from more than 140 firms, and CRCL fell about 15% that day.

Meanwhile, Global Dollar (USDG) is growing far faster than USDC. Over the past six months, USDG’s supply has more than doubled, up 108%, while the USDC market cap slipped 3.3%.

USDC remains far larger at about $73 billion, and it stays MiCA’s clear winner in Europe. Still, the trend shows Circle losing ground as newer, MiCA-compliant coins expand and regulated volume spreads across more issuers.

This pressure helps explain why analysts have started trimming their targets.

Circle Stock Price Levels to Watch

Analysts still see long-term value, but their conviction is cooling. Robert W. Baird kept a Buy rating on July 13 yet cut its CRCL price target from $138 to $100.

On the Circle price chart, $64.37, the 0.382 Fibonacci level, is the line in the sand. A daily close below it opens the path toward $49.86, and then near the $40 zone.

To shift less bearish, the Circle stock price must first clear $73.35, then reclaim $87.86. Until it does, the bearish pattern stays in control. That lingering bearishness could be why Baird is currently setting a lower price target.

The $87.86 level separates a real recovery from a slide toward the $40 zone.