Fidelity Flags 516% Solana Rebound Signal With One Major Caveat

Solana (SOL) has fallen about 71% from its 2025 all-time high. Amid this price decline, holders are sitting on significant unrealized losses, according to Fidelity Digital Assets’ Q2 2026 Signals Report. 

The downturn is reflected in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which has dropped to -0.67. The level has been associated with a 516% median one-year return, though Fidelity cautioned that the pattern may not repeat.

Fidelity Flags Bullish Solana Setup, Warns Pattern May Not Repeat

In Q1 2026, Solana’s NUPL score collapsed 148%, falling from -0.27 to -0.67 as the price dropped 33%. The reading sits deep in what Fidelity describes as the “Capitulation” zone.

“There are tentative signs of stabilization. The NUPL score has rebounded 29% from its early February bottom of -0.94, which may have marked a capitulation point for investors unwilling to absorb increasing losses. However, downside risk remains, and the formation of a new bottom cannot be ruled out,” the report read.

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The firm highlighted that periods when SOL’s NUPL traded near -0.67 have aligned with a median one-year return of 516%. The three-year compound annual growth rate at that level was 62%.

However, Fidelity cautioned that the forward-return data is based on only 10 historical observations for the one-year window and 6 for the three-year window. This highlights both Solana’s relatively short track record and the “extreme nature of this metric’s current value.”

The report also found that the correlation between current NUPL levels and future returns remains weak. Specifically, the relationship with one-year forward returns is zero, while the three-year correlation is -0.16, indicating a weak inverse relationship over longer periods.

This limited and inconsistent relationship aligns with Fidelity’s broader view that lower NUPL levels are “generally more positive.” Still, the firm emphasized that past patterns may not hold going forward.

“Importantly, the historical relationship between SOL’s NUPL score and forward returns may not persist,” Fidelity said.

Solana Network Activity Tells a Different Story

Despite the price weakness, Solana network usage has accelerated. Monthly active addresses rose 50% in Q1 2026, and new addresses jumped 35%. 

“Solana usage has surged even amidst the downturn in asset price. This showcases Solana as a growing financial ecosystem with users transacting at an elevated rate even when volatility is high,” the report added.

Stablecoin activity also held up. The 30-day average transfer value climbed roughly 8% to $7.2 billion across the quarter.

Fidelity reads the divergence as evidence of “a strong and less cyclical user base,” suggesting Solana may be transitioning away from its meme coin-driven identity toward “more mainstream, sustainable financial activity.”

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