XRP Builds Bullish Pattern Despite XRPL Activity Slump, Keeps $1.70 Target In Play

The XRP price has climbed roughly 5% over the past 24 hours as the broader crypto market rebounds. The move has helped the token recover about 16% from its February 28 low. That has helped form a bullish cup pattern that could support further gains.

However, the rally arrives as underlying support weakens. Exchange flows are turning toward selling pressure, derivatives traders are increasing leverage, and activity on the XRP Ledger has cooled sharply since February. Together, these factors suggest the bullish setup could face pressure if demand fails to recover.

Cup-and-Handle Pattern Targets 17% XRP Price Rally, but Institutional Wall Remains

On the 8-hour chart, XRP appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern, a structure often associated with continuation rallies.

The right side of the cup formed after XRP rebounded nearly 16% from its February 28 low, and the asset is now consolidating inside the handle. If buyers push the price above the neckline, the breakout could trigger a measured move toward $1.72 (the $1.70 zone), a 17% projection from the neckline.

However, institutional momentum has not fully confirmed the move.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks capital entering and leaving the market, has repeatedly struggled to break above 0.04, suggesting institutional participation remains limited.

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That hesitation may reflect broader cooling in XRP activity across the Ripple ecosystem. Since early February, XRP has been down roughly 11%, and key activity metrics on the XRP Ledger have declined as well. Lower transaction activity and reduced liquidity can make it harder for sustained buying pressure to support a breakout.

This weakening demand becomes more evident when examining exchange flows.

Exchange Flows Shift Toward Selling as XRPL Activity Cools

On-chain data suggests that some investors may already be preparing to sell into the recent rebound. The Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks whether coins move into or out of exchanges, has recently flipped positive after nearly two weeks of consistent outflows.

Outflows typically signal accumulation, as investors move assets into private wallets. Inflows, however, often indicate that traders are positioning to sell. The shift toward inflows comes just as XRP attempts to consolidate inside the handle portion of its bullish structure.

At the same time, broader XRP Ledger activity has slowed. The number of payment transactions on XRP Ledger peaked at around 2.18 million in early February but has since dropped to roughly 1.03 million, representing a decline of about 53%.

Meanwhile, trading activity on XRPL’s decentralized exchange has weakened sharply, with DEX volume falling from $30.85 million to about $5.09 million, marking an approximately 83% drop.

This decline in on-ledger activity suggests reduced organic demand for XRP as a bridge asset or trading instrument. That can limit the amount of spot buying needed to support a strong rally. It also shows that the lack of conviction is making traders book profits or minimize losses by selling into the recent bounce.

If spot demand weakens while traders attempt to push prices higher, the market can become increasingly dependent on leverage.

Rising Open Interest Shows Traders Are Betting on the Rally — Not Exactly A Good Thing?

Derivatives markets indicate that traders have begun increasing bullish exposure. Open interest in XRP futures climbed from roughly $728 million to around $859 million between March 2 and March 5, showing an 18% surge in leveraged positions.

Funding rates also shifted from slightly negative levels to positive territory near 0.0088, indicating that long traders are paying a premium to maintain their positions. However, the past few trading sessions show signs of cooling leverage. Both open interest and funding rates have started to decline as XRP consolidates inside the handle portion of the pattern.

This shift suggests that some long positions may already be closing or getting liquidated as price momentum slows.

While this positioning initially reflected growing optimism, it also increases liquidation risk. If prices fail to break higher and the handle continues to weaken, heavily leveraged long positions could be forced to close. That could accelerate a price decline.

The situation weakens as underlying liquidity thins. Capital locked in XRPL automated market maker pools has declined as well. The AMM TVL fell from about $57.6 million to roughly $34.1 million since early January, representing a drop of roughly 41%.

Lower liquidity and declining transaction activity mean there may be less organic demand available to absorb selling pressure if leveraged positions unwind.

Key XRP Price Levels to Watch Now

The XRP price is currently trading near $1.42, leaving several important levels that could determine the next move. A breakout above $1.46–$1.47 would confirm the cup-and-handle pattern. It could then push the price toward $1.59, followed by $1.72 (the $1.70 zone) and potentially $1.76.

On the downside, the pattern remains intact as long as XRP holds above the $1.37–$1.33 support zone.

However, a drop below $1.26 would invalidate the bullish structure entirely and could trigger a deeper correction. For now, XRP’s chart still points to a potential breakout.

But rising exchange inflows, growing leverage, and cooling activity across the XRP Ledger suggest the rally may face a critical test before the next leg higher can begin.