Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe. 

In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound.

Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium?

Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends. 

However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases.

Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.” 

This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation. 

He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking. 

By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future.

Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity

More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency. 

In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020.

In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date.

He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory. 

Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations. 

Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold. 

He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com