Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Price Risks 40% Crash as Crypto Drag Outweighs Earnings
The Robinhood stock price has rebounded nearly 23% since its February 5 low near $71. On the surface, this looks like a strong recovery for HOOD. The company also just posted its best financial year on record.
But the bigger picture tells a different story. Weak crypto activity, fading money flows, and rising technical risks suggest this rebound may not last. For now, downside pressure remains the dominant force.
Earnings Strength and Crypto Drag Are Pulling in Opposite Directions
Robinhood delivered a strong financial performance in 2025. Full-year revenue reached about $4.5 billion, up more than 50% year over year. Net income hit nearly $1.9 billion. Q4 revenue rose 27%, and earnings per share beat expectations. Options trading, interest income, and Gold subscriptions all grew sharply.
These numbers show that the core business is improving. Robinhood is no longer dependent only on meme stocks and crypto trading. It is becoming more diversified and more stable.
The company also launched the public testnet for Robinhood Chain. This is an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum. It aims to support tokenized stocks, 24/7 trading, and DeFi tools. This is a long-term growth move, not a short-term price driver. But crypto remains a problem.
Crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to about $221 million. This drop was linked to Bitcoin’s pullback and weaker trading volumes. Because crypto still contributes a large share of activity, the slowdown hurt total revenue. Q4 sales missed analyst estimates by roughly $50 million.
Markets focused on that miss.
After earnings, the stock fell around 7% in extended trading. This showed that investors still see crypto as a major risk. Even strong profits and new products could not offset that weakness. Post that underwhelming crypto-specific performance, the Robinhood stock price seems to have rekindled the fears associated with a bearish pattern break.
HOOD price broke below the falling channel on February 2, triggering a near 30% breakdown. While $71 offered support, the crypto-led weakness could soon attempt to push the prices down.
That is why the rebound since February 5 looks fragile. It is happening inside a broader downtrend, not a new uptrend.
Weak Money Flow and Death Cross Risk Signal Fading Confidence
Price action alone does not explain everything. Money flow indicators show that big investors remain cautious.
One key tool is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF combines price and volume to show whether large players are buying or selling. When it stays above zero, institutions are usually accumulating. When it stays below, they are exiting or staying away.
Right now, Robinhood’s CMF remains negative.
Even during the 23% rebound, CMF failed to reclaim the zero line. It also stayed below its falling trendline. This means that the rally lacked strong big-wallet backing.
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That makes rebounds unstable. Moving averages add another warning.
An Exponential Moving Average, or EMA, gives more weight to recent prices. Traders use them to judge trend strength. When short-term averages fall below long-term ones, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is now facing a “death cross” risk. This happens when the 50-day EMA drops below the 200-day EMA. It often signals longer-term weakness.
Two bearish crossovers already formed on January 30 and February 4. After the January signal, the stock fell nearly 30%. Now, the 50-day is again moving toward the 200-day. If this crossover confirms, downside pressure could intensify.
There is only one mild positive.
On-Balance Volume, or OBV, compares volume on up days and down days. It shows whether buyers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV formed higher lows, while HOOD made lower lows. This suggested that some retail investors were still accumulating.
If crypto weakness continues, even this support may fade. Without strong demand from big wallets, retail buying alone is rarely enough to reverse a trend.
New Falling Channel Points to Key Robinhood Stock Price Levels
The chart structure remains bearish.
Robinhood has been trading inside a falling channel since October. A falling channel forms when price makes lower highs and lower lows inside parallel trendlines. It signals controlled but persistent selling.
Now, a new parallel channel is forming based on recent price action. This updated structure points to a potential downside of more than 40% if the lower trendline breaks. The first key HOOD price level is $71, the last support zone.
As long as the price stays above it, the rebound has a chance to survive despite the crypto drag. A clean break below $71 would bring lower levels into the picture. If that happens, the next major zone sits near $55.
On the upside, resistance remains heavy. The HOOD stock price needs to reclaim $87 and then $98 to improve short-term structure. Above that, $107 and $119 act as major barriers.
Disclaimer: The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. CFD trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article serves informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consider your risk tolerance before trading.
